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The Fed Has Triggered A Stagflationary Disaster That Will Hit Hard This Year

January 14, 2022

This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group

I don’t think I can overstate the danger that the U.S. economy is in right now as we enter 2022. While most people are caught up in the ongoing drama of Covid-19, a REAL threat looms over the nation in the form of a stagflationary tidal wave. The mainstream media is attempting to place the blame on “supply chain disruptions,” but this is a misrepresentation of the issue.

The two factors are indeed intertwined, but the reality is that inflation is the cause of supply chain disruptions, not the result of supply chain disruptions. If we look at the underlying stats for price rises in essential products we can get a clearer picture.

Before I get into my argument, I really want to stress that this is a precarious time and I suggest that people prepare accordingly. In just the past few months I have seen personal expenses rise at least 20% overall, and I’m sure it’s the same or worse for most of you. Stocking necessities and safe-haven investments with intrinsic value like physical precious metals are a good choice for protecting whatever buying power your dollars have left…

Higher prices everywhere

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is officially at the highest levels in 40 years. CPI measurements often diminish the scale of the problem because they do not include things like food, energy and housing which are core expenses for the public. CPI calculations have also been “adjusted” over the past few decades by the government to express a more positive view on inflation. If we look at the inflation numbers at Shadowstats, calculated according to the same methods they used in the 1980’s, we see a dramatic increase in CPI which paints a more dire (but more accurate) picture.

U.S. food prices have spiked to levels not seen since 2008 at the onset of the credit and derivatives collapse that brought about tens of trillions of dollars in Federal Reserve bailouts.

If we look beyond the 2008 crisis, food costs do not see a similar jump until the 1980s. Rising food prices in the US are often obscured by creative accounting and “shrinkflation” (shrinking packages and rising prices), but if we look at global food prices the average is a 30% jump in the past year.

Rental and home prices have also gone into the stratosphere. Rental costs went up around 18% in 2021, and this is an extension of a trend that has been prevalent for the past decade. Prices have been rising for a while, it’s just that now the avalanche has accelerated.

Home prices are currently out of the range of most new potential home buyers. Values jumped 16% in the past year alone, with the average property costing $408,000. Home sales continue to remain elevated compared to two years ago despite inflating prices for one reason and one reason only – the mass migration of Americans away from the draconian mandates and bureaucracy of blue states into more conservative states.

I live in Montana, a primary destination for people relocating, and from my experience the majority of these people are conservatives seeking to escape the vaccine and lockdown mandates in places like California, New York and Illinois. They see the writing on the wall and they are trying to get ahead of the economic and social calamity that will surely befall such states.

I would also note that home sales have finally begun to flatten in the past six months but prices are not dropping, which is a trend that I think needs to be explored further because it illustrates the larger issue of stagflation.

When inflation becomes stagflation

Understand that prices are not just rising because of increased demand (demand is starting to fall in many sectors), prices are rising because of increased money supply and dollar devaluation which is not yet being reflected in the Dollar Index.

Take a look at U.S. GDP and you will see that for the past several years it has tracked in tandem with price inflation. Obviously, if prices inflate then this means people are spending more, which then leads to higher U.S. GDP; it’s like magic, right? In other words, inflation makes it seem as though U.S. GDP is always improving.

However, this has not been the case in the past couple of years.

Official GDP has flattened despite the fact that U.S. money supply and inflation have rocketed higher. What does this mean? I believe it is a sign of stagflation and a reckoning in 2022. If we examine inflation adjusted GDP numbers from Shadowstats we see that GDP has declined rather aggressively in the past couple of years.

We can also see odd tendencies in oil and gasoline prices. While it’s true that gas prices have been higher in the past, this does not address the full context of the situation. U.S. travel spending has declined 12% since 2019 and airline travel has dropped at least 21% in the past year. Average gasoline usage dropped after 2019 and still has not recovered. Yet, gas prices continue to rise? In other words, travel demand is stagnant but prices are INCREASING – this is another signal of inflationary pressures and dollar devaluation. Oil is priced in dollars globally, and therefore any inflation in the dollar will be readily visible in oil. This would help explain why pandemic paranoia and reduced travel have not caused gas prices to drop.

If the current momentum continues the majority of necessities in the U.S. will not be affordable for most people by next year. We are looking at a fast-moving decline in production along with a swift explosion in prices. In other words, a stagflationary disaster.

This is the Federal Reserve’s fault

I and many other alternative economists have been warning about the inevitable inflation/stagflation crisis for years, but the most important factor to understand is WHO is responsible this event?

The mainstream financial media is going to protect the government and the Federal Reserve at all costs during this breakdown. They are going to blame Covid, the lockdowns here and overseas as well as the supply chain bottleneck.

The Fed is the true culprit, though.

While there have been many American Presidents and other politicians that have supported the Fed in its inflationary activities, the central bank itself needs to be held accountable for the downturn that is about to occur. This is a process that started back at the founding of the Fed, but spread like cancer after the crash of 2008 and the introduction of 12+ years of stimulus and bailout measures along with near-zero interest rates.

The inflationary end-game

The pandemic is the perfect cover for the inflationary end game. In 2008 the response to the crisis was to print and pump dollars into banks and corporations in the U.S. and around the globe. This money supply was held in corporate coffers and in central banks overseas, which slowed the effects of inflation. This set the precedent for subversive stimulus policies by giving the Fed a blank check to do whatever it wanted.

In 2020, the Fed created trillions more but this time the money was injected directly into the U.S. economy through Covid stimulus checks, PPP loans and other measures. In the alternative economic field we call this “helicopter money.” These dollars triggered a massive retail buying spree in 2020, but with more dollars in the economy chasing less goods prices are now spiking much higher.

The big discussion today is whether or not the Fed will taper their asset purchases, reduce their balance sheet and raise interest rates to counter inflation?

The fact is it won’t matter; inflation/stagflation will continue or even accelerate as the Fed tapers. With a taper comes the threat of a flattening yield curve in Treasury bonds as well as the danger of bonds and dollars being dumped by foreign investors and central banks. If the trillions upon trillions of dollars being held overseas come flooding back into the U.S., inflation will continue at its current pace or erupt even higher. In fact, the world’s ownership of dollars reached a 26-year low recently. The global transition away from the dollar, toward inflation-resistant investments, has already begun.

This is not a policy error

I explained this Catch-22 threat in my recent article The Fed’s Catch-22 Taper Is a Weapon, Not a Policy Error. In that essay I outline the Fed’s documented history of creating economic disasters that conveniently end up benefiting their friends in the international banks.

I also explained (with evidence) how the Federal Reserve actually takes its marching orders from the Bank for International Settlements, a globalist institution which along with the International Monetary Fund and World Economic Forum is openly seeking a one-world economic system and one-world currency system.

I do not believe that the Fed’s actions are a product of ignorance or stupidity or basic greed. I do not believe the Fed is scrambling to keep the U.S. economy afloat. I believe according to the evidence that the Fed knows exactly what it is doing. The pandemic offers a perfect scapegoat for an engineered crash of the U.S. economy which the Fed is trying to facilitate.

Why? Because the more desperate people are financially, the easier they are to buy off with false promises and a loaf of bread. They are easier to control. On top of that, with the U.S. economy reduced to second- or third-world status, it is easier to sell the public on the predetermined solution – total global centralization and far less freedom.

As the stagflationary crash plays out, never forget who was really the cause of the public’s suffering. In the fog of national crisis it is easy for the establishment to shift blame and responsibility and to cloud the truth. The inflation calamity is about to get much worse, and as it does we need to rally newly awakened people to take action against the central bankers and globalists behind it.



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Brandon Smith

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  • Concerned January 14, 2022 at 10:26 am

    “I do not believe that the Fed’s actions are a product of ignorance or stupidity or basic greed. I do not believe the Fed is scrambling to keep the U.S. economy afloat. I believe according to the evidence that the Fed knows exactly what it is doing.”
    Thank you for the above quote. Too many alternative analysts seem to also be apologists when it comes to intent, and refuse to state that this is intentional self-sabotage by the Fed.
    What are your thoughts on recent announcements that we’ll see multiple rate hikes this year? In support of your argument, my opinion is that it constitutes a double whammy to the middle class consumer, by increasing the cost of capital (e.g. real estate) directly in the wake of massive inflation and currency devaluation. I’d be interested in hearing your opinion.

    • Bill January 14, 2022 at 1:14 pm

      Absolutely and thank you!

  • Pat B January 14, 2022 at 11:07 am

    Of course they know exactly what’s happening that they are causing. The times will only get much, much worse as a deeper famine sets in. It’s all in the Bible folks. Written centuries ago for such a time as this.

    • Rob January 14, 2022 at 5:07 pm

      You are correct Pat as we are going thru the last 8 years that commenced on 10/31/21:

      • Stan Sylvester January 15, 2022 at 9:15 am

        Baloney. Tribulation talk sedates Christians into doing nothing as they are told they are already in the end times. It tric ks Christians out of eternal rewards they could be earning before Christ’s FIRST return for his saints. He returns a second time WITH his saints in Revelation.

        • Jim Tompkins January 17, 2022 at 8:19 am

          Stan, I agree. As a Christian, it disturbs me that most Christians are waiting to be rescued by the rapture rather than taking action and being part of the solution.

          • Gauntlet33 January 17, 2022 at 12:54 pm

            I agree as well as I believe He gave us the power to fend for ourselves. Although I have faith in God, I have a plan A which is to stay put, plan B which is to bug out if/when times get very real (and I don’t think we’re there yet as there’s no shooting here in the US), and plan C is hold the Bible and pray.

  • Quatermain January 14, 2022 at 11:12 am

    When exploring the rising house costs do not overlook the role of Black Rock and its associated subsidiaries. I live in Idaho which is arguably being hit even harder than Montana. I have a small 1/4 acre lot which is not suitable for building but great for gardening. its assessed valuation has increased 10 times over what it was valued at in 2020. That is probably correct based on unsolicited and apparently genuine offers I have received to purchase it. These offers came from entities with names such as “One Horse Properties” . My neighbors have also received similar sight unseen offers. A ten fold increase in property taxes will eventually drive many out of their homes and off the land should it continue. There is more to this than blue stater’s fleeing the oppression.

    • Black Cat January 15, 2022 at 7:21 am

      Absolutely, Global Cap. Mega corp’s and world central banks (all subsidiaries, ngo’s, you name it) here we go again, and the long term cycles continue.
      Enemies foreign and domestic!
      The good thing is they have revealed themselves more so than ever.

    • Gauntlet33 January 17, 2022 at 12:58 pm

      Yup, out here in LA, I heard rumors that the Chinese (not bashing the nationality, just stating a supposed fact) are buying up lots of properties sight unseen sometimes hundreds of thousands more than list price. I don’t know if they’re shadow buyers for Blackrock, but it sure seems like it. A nice 2,700 sq ft home in the middle of the San Fernando Valley, no view, but with a pool on a 1/3 acre will run about $1.5 million.

      • Pat B January 19, 2022 at 1:18 pm

        I know of a huge 9,200sqft, 56 acres, hilltop home in So. Cal. very near Camp Pendleton, March AFB, with Navy in both directions an hours drive away. Listed, sold by Chinese realtor to Chinese folks. Seems they have the $$$$$$$. to spend and fix up.
        Since the purchase in early 2021 at $2.6 million has increased another million in a short time.
        Very strategically placed

        An Oath Keeper friend let me know a few years ago there are Chinese military/bases across the borders within a 2 hours drive from either side of this nation – top and bottom. I am sure Brandon can be aware of that and/or verify.

        • Gauntlet33 January 28, 2022 at 1:54 pm

          Interesting. So I’m guessing from what you wrote that their goal is to blockade entry and exit from the US. To keep food and goods from reaching the people? For WW3? Either way, sounds like a border city is not the place to be.

    • Sgt Oddball January 18, 2022 at 11:58 pm

      Thanks for that Quatermain, I was going to mention this as background to the nasty thought I just had which I’ll outline in a moment. – Thanks for saving me the trouble.

      – Incidentally, according to Redfin, as at Q3 ’21 the Institutionals share now stands at a record 18.2% of the residential real estate market:

      …Now to my nasty thought:… – One surefire sign for Joe Q Public that the game is up for the banksters would be a generalised and absolute collapse of the real estate market. In a world of all-else-being-equal this would be brought about by ever-levitating home prices putting real estate permanently out of the little guy’s reach, resulting in an organic collapse in demand exactly as Brandon describes.

      But!… – In Davostan’s brave new world (where you’ll own nothing, eat yer damn bugs, and be happy about it) it matters not who your particular landlord is in an *Exclusively* rentiered housing market – Blackrock, Vanguard, The Morgue or The Squid, who cares? – They all belong to Davos anyways.

      Now suppose, once the Institutionals have effectively cornered the market, they then just start robo-trading the property titles back-and-forth between themselves in perpetuity?… – Sorta like the subprime churn, pre-’07, all over again but with the underlying assets instead of derivatives (Hell! – There’s probally scope for a whole new slew of those too…). So residential property titles become just another category of gaming chip, thrown on top of the vast pile already on the casino table, and with that, just yet one more artificial, fantasy-land metric of the ‘health’ of the ‘economy’.

      We can take it as read that there will still be a central banking entity, emerging from the smoke of the controlled demolition, to perma-bailout Blackrock et al, whenever the need arises. They can thereby avoid the *Appearance* of a repeat of ’07-’08, whilst keeping the housing ‘market’ perpetually ‘liquid’ AND effervescent, and thus maintain the appearance (so far as Joe Blow’s concerned) that the proverbial Emperor indeed remains *Fully Attired* – ‘leastways so far as residential real estate is concerned.

      TL;DR: – The residential real estate market’s about to get ‘Metaversed’…

      • Sgt Oddball January 19, 2022 at 12:22 am

        …- *Extra Sauce*: – Maybe they’ll let you ‘own’ an NFT’d photo of your rented home, taken from Goolag Streetview – *Heh*…

  • David Homer January 14, 2022 at 11:56 am

    The saying, “you can’t fight the Fed”, is probably true for most of us. However we can prepare ourselves for the disaster they are causing.

  • Dennis January 14, 2022 at 12:50 pm

    When the shit his the fan, the ceiling goes brown.
    “In order to get rid of the truth, they will have to get rid of us.” – Brandon Smith-

    • Gauntlet33 January 17, 2022 at 12:59 pm

      $hit reference was funny. 🙂

      • 253045 January 17, 2022 at 9:25 pm

        No $hit.

  • lamont cranston January 14, 2022 at 4:13 pm

    Liquidated my last CRE property (Charlotte) in January. So, made cash offers 5-7% above appraisal on 4-5 SFRs (3BR/2-2.5BA) in the Beaufort SC area. No luck, offers were 1`0-15% above appraisal.

    Gave up, so we concentrated on improving our marsh house on one of the Sea Islands. Well w/ desalinazation unit, screen porch w/ “ski lodge” metal fireplace & deck, 2 greenhouses, 5 planters, 24KV w/ 500 gal LP UST, waiting on the pool/spa contractor, the infrared spa is stored in the barn.

    The way this planned breakdown is progressing, it was the better investment.

  • Farmer January 14, 2022 at 4:37 pm

    I mentioned this previously, but believe it makes more sense now that the Fed is boxed in even more by recent indicators of inflation. I see them continuing on their taper path, but before even getting to March and raising interest rates, causing a market correction of 20% – 40%. Then they reverse course and go back to buying treasuries. That stimulates a bounce in the market. Then, having “rescued” the market, the huge crash that unfolds over time isn’t their fault. And best of all allows even more excuse to inflate and destroy the dollar. Then when there’s ac90% crash, the IMF can come in and take over bailouts with SDR’s. That initial correction, bounce and final crash mimics the crash of ‘29.
    Of course nobody knows.. just my speculation.

    • Avatar photo
      Brandon Smith January 14, 2022 at 4:45 pm

      The Fed is not boxed in, this is the Catch-22 outcome they wanted and created.

      • Farmer January 14, 2022 at 7:57 pm

        I was using the term somewhat euphemistically, because it’s precisely because the public believes the Fed is “boxed in” that they believe the Fed is doing what they have to in order to “fight inflation” (even though the Fed caused it). So I believe they have to go through the motions, until the market begins to tank. Maybe they’ll continue until we’re in a full blown recession and a 90% crash.. I’m guessing not. That they’ll go stop tightening so they can look responsive to the market and (mainly) so they can resume dollar destruction. Just my thinking..

        • Gauntlet33 January 17, 2022 at 1:04 pm

          That’s what I tend to think too…that they’ll ram hard both ways (first taper and then helicopter money) to look like they tried to be the hero and save the market.

  • Pat B January 14, 2022 at 4:42 pm

    “Courage is Being Scared to Death And Saddling Up Anyway!” John Wayne

    • Black Cat January 18, 2022 at 5:13 pm

      Ain’t that the truth!

  • Pologrounds January 14, 2022 at 6:28 pm

    In his speech after the FOMC minutes were released in December, J Pow ell explicitly stated that, “A successful cyber attack on a large financial institution or financial market utility is one of the top risks to financial stability.” The Financial Market Utilities are clearing, payment and settlement houses (OCC, DTCC, FICC, NSCC, ICE, etc.). Doesn’t this cyber attack risk that could take out a large financial institution or market utility set the stage for the FedNow instant payments system, set to be released “ahead of schedule” in 2023? Even black r o c k has indicated a cyber attack is of the highest risk right right now, as per a December 2021 report on their website.

    The script is being written right now.

  • M January 14, 2022 at 8:17 pm

    And to think i almost broke even on a 20 year hold of bac this week…

  • GiantLdaV January 14, 2022 at 10:19 pm

    “Why? Because the more desperate people are financially, the easier they are to buy off with false promises and a loaf of bread. They are easier to control. On top of that, with the U.S. economy reduced to second- or third-world status, it is easier to sell the public on the predetermined solution – total global centralization and far less freedom.“

    The benefit of pitting the masses as enemies of one another is effectively overshadowing the crowd right now.

    Its like enduring a full blitz of virus/vax propaganda. Offensive play is rife with dirty penalties and hobbling censorship.

    Its been proposed that Mass Formation, the hypnotizing covid/vax fear, can be only replaced by a greater threat for those on the fence with all this.

    Global totalitarianism, the cradle to grave digital passport and absolute loss of freedoms is what should be the highest concern for the crowd.

    This full control tracking apparatus being built has a higher likelihood of failing in many Free Counties and communities of the US. CBDCs, Digital Passport roll out will be a dud for many (not all.)

    So the FED and Fraternity will need to amplify the desperation weapon as described in the article. That loaf of bread for many in the crowd will overrule a great number of people, no matter their current state of combatting Build Back Better faster and faster.

    I do think there will be heavy resistance led by a Liberty Movement resurgence, but the damage about to be experienced as this speeds up will be something for the ages.

    Even more, I think the psychopaths hoping the crowd stays focused on the blitz and each other, underestimated their real opposition and it is throwing their arrogant timing off to plan.

    Great article and comes full circle with last year’s Stagflation piece. Stack on.

  • Mark Sircus January 15, 2022 at 4:38 am

    Brandon, its like we were reading each others minds, exactly what I thought. They are not stupid, they know exactly what they are doing. This is as far from “forgive them father for they no not what they do,” as you can get. So brick walls here we come. Meanwhile I am driving faster, creating, investing and spending in the time we have left before the plane crash. In Brazil of course.

  • Serge January 15, 2022 at 1:24 pm

    Brandon, while reading that article, I thought of one of your old posts: i.e “The worst part is that central bankers know exactly what they are doing”.. Indeed, they do!
    Mr. Von Greyerz also thinks like many of us, that 2022 will be a momentous year for the global economy. Besides, his article makes the link between your 2 articles of the current week.
    p.s: The globalist elites are under pressure and will have to strike hard and fast to maintain control on their global agenda.
    “Ordo Ab Chaos”? Again and again.

  • Pat B January 15, 2022 at 7:05 pm

    Henry Kissinger, 1971: “Control oil and you control nations; control food and you control the people.”
    Whats changed since this Kissinger prediction….?

  • Scott January 16, 2022 at 8:12 pm

    Brandon – I really wish you were wrong here but you’re not. We live in sh$tty times.

  • Joe January 18, 2022 at 7:10 am

    If you want to know how evil/corrupt the Fed is read “Wall Street on Parade”. Alt market and WSOP are my goto daily reads.

  • DavidC January 18, 2022 at 12:13 pm

    Hi Brandon:

    Your take please on….

    Independent Federation of Business, et al. v Department of Labor, OSHA, et al. (Jan 13)

    Summary: 6-3 granting the stay to the applicants against the OSHA vaccinate-or-test-requirement

    My preliminary thoughts…

    —Very disturbed that the “liberty” was mentioned only once at the end of the ruling by the assenting majority. Very disturbed that at no time did any of the applicants in the suite say “Hey, we think think these MRNA shots are BS that don’t help anyone and are correlated with heart attack, stroke, etc. in otherwise perfectly healthy adults. We believe that the FDA has not satisfactorily showed that these are vaccines in the first place, and this explains why workers are walking off the jobs or threatening to quit, and it’s highly relevant to this case.” That’s really important, yet, the whole time, EVERYONE seemingly went with the official COVID narrative, even Thomas and Alito, and of course, the applicants of the suite.
    —Very alarmed that assenting majority found that Congress had not “spoken clearly” on granting OSHA Secretary this particular kind of authority, and that Congress will need to enact legislation specifically giving OSHA power to require vaccination. Sounds good, except that it leaves Congress able to pass legislation that that does give OSHA vaccine-or-test authority.
    –Very unclear as to what the status of masking is/will be
    —I get that employers can still force this on employees, and that globalists will use local governments in blue states to pass these OSHA vaccine-or-test requirements
    —Very disappointed that Kavanaugh sided with the regressives in Biden v Missouri and Becerra v Louisiana (Jan 13), and that health care workers (and it sounds like anyone who works in a health care facility where funded to any extent by Medicare and Medicaid) are “required” to get the MRNA shot. Such BS!

    My questions for you…
    —For all intents and purposes, do you think the globalists have the organization to get Congress to pass “vaccinate-or-test” legislation before the midterms?
    —Does this mean that Fortune 500s that do business in red states will drop any mandatory MRNA-or-test policies they were planning, based on the premise that they are now open to civil suits for damages?

  • Dennis January 18, 2022 at 2:48 pm

    “We must believe that it is the darkest before the dawn of a beautiful new world. We will see it when we believe it.” -Saul Alinsky-

    • Black Cat January 18, 2022 at 5:26 pm

      I’m thinking that dusk has only just descended upon us, where the last rays of sun are still a fading presence in the western sky. Darkness is perceived to be near and all here no that it is coming. Hopefully Saul Alinsky is correct and we can believe ourselves capable of correct and appropriate action to make this world beautiful and free.

      • Dennis January 19, 2022 at 2:28 am

        As the saying goes, Hope is a fantastic breakfast, but a terrible diner…..

        “Who looks outside, dreams; who looks inside, awakes.” -Carl Jung-

      • Pat B January 19, 2022 at 1:21 pm

        There is only One Who can make it beautiful and free and it isn’t “man.” What’s being torn down will never return in the way most expect it to.

        • Dennis January 19, 2022 at 8:52 pm

          “The only way to live is to accept each minute as an unrepeatable miracle, which is exactly what it is: a miracle and unrepeatable.” -Storm Jameson-

    • michel February 6, 2022 at 7:11 pm

      what a beautiful quote, thx alot!
      kind regards from the central of the nwo, germany, within the eudssr

  • Dennis January 19, 2022 at 9:19 pm

    How a secret meeting on Jekyll Island led to the Fed

  • Tom Bonnett February 14, 2022 at 5:19 am

    After Washington “saved us” from the ‘08 crisis, I had lunch with a progressive friend and we debated the “solution.” I told him Uncle Sam (and everyone else) should have let the system correct itself, as painful as that might be. My friend said, “You don’t seem to understand: We’re talking the GLOBAL system here.” I told him, “I understand. What you don’t understand is that they didn’t solve anything. They kicked the can down the road.”

    So now we’re in not just a precarious economic situation, but a volatile cultural moment. I viewed the ‘08 crisis as America’s last chance to unite and endure genuine hardship, as close as a middle-age man (in my case) could get to being part of a WWII-style generation. But the bailout allowed us to spend the subsequent decade+ eviscerating each other on social media and draw battle lines over Trump, Covid, you name it, under the illusion of prosperity. I don’t want to think it was intentional, but when I look around me it’s difficult not to at least entertain the notion.

    I discovered your site thru Zero Hedge and really like it. Thank you.

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