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What Happens Next In The Ukraine Proxy War? A New Russian Offensive In Spring?

February 17, 2023

By Brandon Smith

From the very beginning of the Ukraine conflict I have been following developments on both sides. My concern has always been the larger implications in geopolitics and economics. Because globalism has pushed most nations into interdependency, an ongoing war in Ukraine could very well set off a chain of dominoes that tests America’s already unstable financial system and supply chain.

I should note that I really don’t care about the Ukrainian government or the Russian government and I have no interest in which side “wins.” I, like many people, think Ukraine has nothing to do with the American public and is purely a proxy war being pursued by NATO. It is my belief that certain international interests (globalists) are keen for the conflict to continue regardless as they seek to exploit it as a crisis of opportunity.

All of my primary predictions for the Ukraine war have turned out to be true:

First, as I noted in my article ‘The Globalist Reset Agenda Has Failed – Is Ukraine Plan B?’, published in January 2022, a regional war (or proxy war) with Russia in Ukraine was the most likely scenario to unfold, followed by international calls for escalation against Russia.

Second, in my article ‘Ukraine Learns The Value Of An Armed Citizenry, But Far Too Late’, published in March, I noted that:

The methods which Ukrainian forces are using to ambush Russian armor columns are rather advanced and familiar. I suspect the possibility that there are outside military “advisers” (perhaps US advisers) on the ground right now in Ukraine. The advanced guerrilla-style ambush tactics and the results look similar to training that is often given to Green Berets or SAS. The UK did send anti-tank weapons along with a small group of “trainers” to Ukraine in January.”

It is now openly admitted by recently retired British Army, Gen. Mark Carleton-Smith that UK special forces (SAS) are on the ground in Ukraine leading Ukrainian troops. This revelation potentially opens the door to a much wider war between NATO and Russia.

Third, in my article ‘Escalation: Recent Events Suggest Mounting Economic Danger’, published last September, I predicted that:

With the amount of propaganda coming from Ukrainian Intelligence and NATO, it’s hard to say what is actually happening, but I suspect Russia is changing strategies and repositioning to deploy missile and artillery bombardment of infrastructure, including power grids and water.”

This is a tactic that Russia has avoided for months, which is surprising because one of the first measures usually taken by the US during an invasion is to eliminate most key infrastructure (as we did in Iraq).”

Not long after I wrote this, Russia did in fact shift to an infrastructure targeting strategy. Ukraine’s power grid was estimated in December to be 60% to 80% destroyed, and 70% of residents in Kyiv were without running water. Ukrainian grid operators admit that the damage is “colossal.” In the least damaged regions, the power grid is still running at a 30% deficit.

Large generators shipped by NATO countries have lessened the strain and allowed major facilities like hospitals and military posts to function and mild weather has helped prevent a full on exodus of the entire population. Repairs are ongoing, but the lowest damage estimates are running around $9 billion (more than double that in the mid-range estimates), and rolling blackouts continued through the end of January with a limit of 10 hours per day of electricity for citizens that still have a working grid.

I mention this information because it is important to put these events in context of the bigger picture; the mainstream media and a majority of pro-Ukraine people argued that these scenarios were not going to happen. They were wrong. They will continue to make wrong predictions because they are basing their conclusions on propaganda rather than evidence and logic.

Russian missile and drone strikes on infrastructure in particular were widely dismissed as a possibility in the weeks leading up to the Russian pullback. The “war was over”, they claimed, and soon Ukraine would take the Donbas and even Crimea. Yet, here we are months later and the war continues.

As I have noted ever since Russia shifted strategies for the winter, all Putin had to do is wait until NATO armaments and money started to fade and Ukraine’s grid down problems wear out the population. In terms of US arms, deliveries are now drawing down as inventories shrink on key weaponry. Putin has been playing the long game.

The grid targeting strategy made sense for a number of reasons, but most of all it suggests an effort by Russia to push civilian populations out of major cities or out of the country entirely. Why is this valuable to Putin? Because less civilians means a lesser chance of heavy collateral damage during a new offensive effort, which I believe will take place sometime this spring.

It’s important to understand that, for now, the dynamics of war have changed. The information age has made hiding military operations and movements very difficult, and when civilian casualties mount everyone in the world is going to know about it. If media and phone technology had been as available in Iraq in 2003 as it is today, I suspect the US would have waged the war much more carefully and avoided the high civilian death rate. At this time, public optics matter and Ukraine is as much an information war as it is a shooting war.

Putin is likely trying to clear the field of as many civilians as he can before a renewed push forward. At least 20% of the Ukrainian population has permanently fled to Europe under refugee status while around 2.9 million Ukrainians have left to join Russia.

Russia now has an approaching window for offensive actions, and the need for such a move is clear. NATO countries are supplying Ukraine with less armaments than before, but they are upping the technological level of the weapons they are delivering. It is only a matter of time before long range missiles are handed to Zelensky that would give him the ability to strike at targets deep in Russia.

Putin will need to increase the existing buffer and expand his foothold beyond the Donbas while also protecting Crimea from retaliation. This means, most likely, splitting the country in two from the north and drawing a majority of Ukraine/NATO elements there. Spring would be the most opportune time, as conditions for troop movements improve. Offense requires speed.

There have been reports of extensive troop movements and joint training in Belarus, a Russian ally within easy striking distance of Kyiv. The troop build up in Belerus is compounded by a recent statement by President Alexander Lukashenko, who warned that even a single enemy soldier crossing the Belarus border would lead to the nation’s full involvement in Ukraine. In other words, Belerus is about to join a Russian offensive with its 60,000 troops and 300,000 reservists. Surrounding Kyiv from the north would be child’s play.

Russia has been engaged in counter-operations in the east for the past month, but I suspect this is a distraction from the real strike which will come from Belarus. Russia has cut their artillery attacks by 75%, which suggests a stockpiling of ordnance for an offensive attack. Russia’s missile bombardments have also been highly limited, and though mainstream propagandists say that they must be “running low”, a majority of their missile technology has been used sparingly, including their hypersonic missile technology which has only been used three times for key targets according to reports.

Russia has not deployed the majority of their air forces and larger drones to Ukraine. A cursory study of Russian military capabilities should tell anyone that Putin is holding back, again, likely to avoid mass civilian casualties. All bets are off this spring if and when Belerus joins the theater.

Mainstream military analysts continue to argue that Belarus is “just a feint.” They say the deployment of Russian forces is limited, that Russia doesn’t have the resources for a new offensive and that Belarus will not join the war. The fact that these analysts have been consistently wrong for the past year tells me that ALL of these elements are going to happen.

The question is, what happens after that? What happens when Russia takes considerable ground in Ukraine despite hundreds of billions of dollars in NATO aid, advanced armaments, intel from the DoD and special forces “advisers” on the ground? Well, NATO officials have said that a loss in Ukraine is not acceptable; meaning, they will escalate.

It’s hard to say yet what that would entail – Russia has already weathered all sanctions and economic tactics deployed by the west with the help of trading partners like China and India. They have even survived being removed from the SWIFT network. Escalation would have to entail direct contact.

It is my belief that the Ukraine event is just one part of a larger chain reaction. With NATO weakened after throwing billions in cash into Ukraine along with a large supply of arms, it seems obvious to me that this is an opportune time for another conflict elsewhere which NATO will be ill equipped to respond to. China is in a perfect position to invade Taiwan, for example.

Ukraine is a useful powderkeg, but not the only powderkeg.



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Brandon Smith

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  • Hugo Sandoval February 17, 2023 at 5:55 am

    Great and important article, thanks Brandon!

  • Roundball Shaman February 17, 2023 at 5:47 pm

    What factors brought down the Roman Empire? Historians often these key developments…
    1. Military overspending
    2. Corruption in Government and Incompetence
    3. Increasing political instability
    4. A loss of Traditional Values
    5 A Weakened Military Force – less competency and effectiveness
    Boy, each of those things sure looks familiar, doesn’t it? Are we still talking about Rome here… or about another now-failing Would-Be-World-Empire with delusions of being ‘The Indispensable Nation For All Eternity’?
    History teaches the lesson that you shouldn’t over-spend on the wrong things. That you cannot let Government get so corrupt and ineffective. That politics cannot turn into some kind Civil War that tears a nation apart. That a people must hold on to the traditional values that constitute a stable and thriving society. And that whatever kind of military force you employ… that it’s a good thing to value their ability to function properly instead of caring more about their sexuality and political biases.
    But History is only a guide for those with the wisdom to learn from it. If you lack that wisdom then there is no hope for you anyway regardless of whatever course you choose to take.

    • Rodster February 17, 2023 at 5:59 pm

      Also both were Republic forms of government.

    • Jessy S February 18, 2023 at 12:07 pm

      Military spending isn’t that bad. It is just that the United States has been using it in a bad way since World War 2 including invasions of other countries.

      • Roundball Shaman February 18, 2023 at 4:21 pm

        A quick Web search brings the following headlines:
        ‘The US spends more on its military than the next ten nations combined – and that number just keeps increasing’
        ‘Why U.S. Military Spending Is More Than You Think It Is’
        ‘The annual military budget could hit $1 trillion by 2027′
        ‘Military Budget Hike for 2023 is 3,200 Times the NLRB Increase’
        ‘If a budget reveals what we value, this one should give us pause: extravagant spending for the war machine, scraps for workers.’
        ‘U.S. House overwhelmingly approves bill backing record military spending’

      • Steve February 19, 2023 at 7:47 am

        Jessy, the US (and UK) have been spending the budget on the wrong things: big, outdated prestige projects like the F35 “Jack of All Trades, Master of None” fighter, and aircraft carriers that can be sunk from 500 miles away by a cheap hypersonic missile. The Russians have been paying attention to the new technologies and have developed an entirely new form of warfare.

    • Steve February 19, 2023 at 7:45 am

      A loss of traditional values – and in particular, and obsession with sexual perversion. Sounds familiar.

  • Rodster February 17, 2023 at 5:56 pm

    Totally agree with Brandon’s assessment which pretty much falls in line with Retired US Army Lt Col Douglas McGregor who has been saying that as well. He has said that Ukraine has lost most of its population since the war as they have left the country. He also expects a spring offensive and says that Ukraine has already lost. He goes onto say that NATO equipment is a non-factor because it takes months to train troops on how to use an M1 Tank. It is NATO troops who are basically doing operating the high tech equipment. Douglas McGregor who views himself as a Libertarian says that the US should not have started this proxy war in the first place. Many also believe that China is next, however the US no longer has the large cache of armaments because a lot of it was sent to Ukraine. Good business for the MIC and the Banksters who will provide the funding.

    • Tim February 17, 2023 at 6:19 pm

      In a recent interview with Col. McGregor, Judge Napolitano showed a clip of General Milley saying Russia has lost! The lies coming from Washington are absolutely outrageous.

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      Brandon Smith February 17, 2023 at 6:56 pm

      I’m glad I’m not the only person who is mentioning this information. There are so many people buying into the mainstream media narrative on Ukraine, even in the Liberty Movement.

    • Steve February 19, 2023 at 7:49 am

      The West has lost in Ukraine. My fear is, as Brandon talks about, what they do next. Do they skedaddle like they did in Afghanistan and distract us with some other crazy project? Or do they go full-in? A direct invasion with Nato troops would take a long time to set up and would fail. That’s why I still fear the nuclear option. The neocons are so crazy that they probably think they can survive such an event.

  • Rodster February 17, 2023 at 6:01 pm

    You should never say never but I still don’t think that this confrontation will go all out nuclear.

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      Brandon Smith February 17, 2023 at 6:52 pm

      I don’t think so, either. A global nuclear exchange would destroy the majority of the control grid infrastructure the globalists have been building up for decades and the outcome would be unpredictable. The radiation would diminish in about 3 weeks to safe levels and such an event is indeed survivable by anyone prepared. Most of the useful idiots would be dead, leaving the globalists without their infrastructure and the preppers. I don’t think that is the best case scenario for them. This is why they tried a pandemic event instead; if the virus had actually been deadly they would have had a much more manageable crisis.

      • Rodster February 18, 2023 at 8:41 am

        Interesting thought on the nuclear fallout. I have watched YT presentations from nuclear experts who paint a dire picture for life on earth if nuclear weapons were to be used. They believe that it would result in a “nuclear winter scenario” that would last for decades which would wipeout 99% of all life forms on the planet.

        I’m not an student of nuclear fallout but I do question their claims as it is all theory until the event actually takes place but Douglas McGregor is one who also believes a nuclear exchange between nations would be catastrophic for the human race.

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          Brandon Smith February 18, 2023 at 4:18 pm

          Well, if you look at the energy and ash released from a volcano like Tonga, which was more powerful than any existing nuclear weapon, the result was not all that dramatic in the long term. There have been times in Earth’s history when hundreds of volcanoes where erupting constantly and yet most life went on unimpeded. This is because weather systems wash fallout from the air very quickly. The radiation itself diminishes due to half-life reduction, and is safe in 2-3 weeks. Radiation would only damage the first areas in which the rain dropped and concentrated the nuclear dust. The Earth would be perfectly livable after 3 weeks. The biggest problem would be the loss of most infrastructure which would mean no fresh water for possibly weeks, and no food for months for the vast majority of the population (except those that prepared).

          • Rodster February 18, 2023 at 6:41 pm

            I personally find the nuclear scenarios as hyperbole. I remember well as we were told that when the clock turned to 00:00 on Jan 1st 2000 because of the Y2K bug, we were supposed to have planes falling out of the sky, ATM’s would quit working, you couldn’t pump gas etc, etc. None of that happened.

            This guy says it’s game over for planet earth if a nuclear war starts. It all sounds a little Y2K all over again but I don’t know if this guy is saying is bullsh*t or legit.


        • Tim C February 20, 2023 at 9:22 am

          Carl Sagan eventually admitted that he totally made up “nuclear winter.”

          • David Homer February 24, 2023 at 7:57 am

            I watched some of the video that Rodster posted. Some of the information is correct but all of it is misleading and meant to cause fear. He wants more clicks which brings more money. The graphics show a circle for instance and then give an area in square miles. A blast radius would be the appropriate information. He mentions air temps of 400 to 500 degrees minutes after the blast but no mention of how large an area this covers. My wood stove has temps much higher than that but it’s only a small space. A campfire is also hotter. By leaving out important information it’s easy to exaggerate.

      • Steve February 19, 2023 at 7:51 am

        I hope you’re right, Brandon. These people are not only evil but have a very limited grasp of reality. Let’s hope there are some sane voices in the Pentagon talking some sense into these maniacs. On a different note, do you think CBDCs are going to be as freedom-crushing as so many on our side think?

  • Alex Knight February 17, 2023 at 7:41 pm

    Great analysis. Ultimately, I predict a Russian victory.

    • Steve February 19, 2023 at 7:51 am

      Alex, I don’t think you’ll lose your house on that bet!

  • Dennis February 18, 2023 at 3:06 am

    Brandon, thank you for this article, pfff yet another war we are tricked into participating.

    “The defeat of Ukraine is becoming clearer”

  • Serge February 18, 2023 at 11:29 am

    Brillant post, Brandon!
    “From the very beginning of the Ukraine conflict I have been following developments on both sides. My concern has always been the larger implications in geopolitics and economics. Because globalism has pushed most nations into interdependency, an ongoing war in Ukraine could very well set off a chain of dominoes that tests America’s already unstable financial system and supply chain.” I fully agree with that.
    Indeed, by also taking into account geopolitics and economics, it gives us effective tools to better understand or appreciate current global issues.
    With this crisis by design(and as we suspect or know), globalists want to accelerate the collapse of Western economies. And also, trying to implement the “Green Agenda” and Digital gulag.
    Here’s another brilliant article published a few weeks after the Russia/Ukraine “war” which remains as relevant as ever:

  • striketheroot February 18, 2023 at 12:09 pm

    The true TEST of the American (enforcement) division of the Khazarian Empire will come if the MIC REimplements conscription which would of course include women and all LGBQT categories.

    • Steve February 19, 2023 at 7:52 am

      That’s going to be highly amusing, Strikeroot. Will the blue haired landwhales form their own units?

  • John G February 18, 2023 at 1:10 pm

    Hi Brandon,
    Could you let us know your thoughts on all these toxic train derailments all at once? Is it another way to try popul reduction?

    • Serge February 23, 2023 at 12:28 pm

      Indeed. There have been many, many strange “incidents” around the world recently.
      Remember in the U.S and overseas: about 15 train derailments, in addition to fires at numerous major chemical and other facilities since 12/28/2022:
      Alberta, South Carolina, Saskatchewan, California, Alaska, Ohio, Louisiana, Michigan, Philadelphia, Alabama, Texas and Brooklyn. It is also happening all over the world: Verona/Italy.
      And this wednesday(2/22/2023), – in the U.S again! – a fire broke out at a major Y-12 nuclear weapons facility.
      It is hard, very hard to believe that all these events are coincidences.
      We know that the psychopathic and evil globalists will use any means necessary to control, enslave and reduce the world population.

  • Juha February 19, 2023 at 1:53 am

    Thank you Brandon. I still agree with you a great deal. Although in this article you did not bring up the idea that Putin is a puppet like Zelensky.

    War is a racket. There are tremendous business opportunities during and after the war for banksters and their corporations. I am on that opinion that this war will level the surface of ukrainan farm fields flat from building structures. Maybe Belarussia, Baltics and Poland also. They are the bread basket of Europe and world.

    I was thinking what the heck Bill Gates was doing in the Munich security conference last week. Maybe they are already planning the future. Build back better, mega cities and empty farm fields with robotic farming.

    The war is mainly for destruction purposes and to drive population out of their homes. That is probably why the energy infrastructure is demolished.. to usher people to leave.

    After the war the Fenix bird will rise from the ashes.. with a little help of Blackrock, JP Morgan, Goldmansucks etc

    • Serge February 19, 2023 at 2:33 pm

      @Juha, “War is a racket.” Right! Clearly!
      Historically, Cynically and in “Each side”, a small group of businessmen makes a lot of money on the blood of the populations directly affected by the wars.
      PS: “Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”, Napoleon I of France
      “…their sole object is gain.” And i add: Full KONTROL on Humanity.

  • Luke February 19, 2023 at 4:34 pm

    “The question is, what happens after that? What happens when Russia takes considerable ground in Ukraine despite hundreds of billions of dollars in NATO aid, advanced armaments, intel from the DoD and special forces “advisers” on the ground? Well, NATO officials have said that a loss in Ukraine is not acceptable; meaning, they will escalate.”

    This is what scares me. This is an excerpt from Kunstler’s latest blog post. Don’t know whether to laugh or cry. One side is fighting for their history, culture, and very way of life. The other side is fighting to maintain their dominance over the world which is the source of their wealth. You could literally be sitting on a mountain of gold but its totally worthless if you don’t have the power to defend it…..Great Read as always Brandon!!

    Per JHK……”The biggest problem Russia has in resolving this conflict on its border, is doing it in a way that does not drive “JB” and his posse of war-mongers so batshit crazy that they resort to a nukes-flying, world-ending, Thelma-and-Louise type denouement. In effect, America put a bomb on Russia’s front porch and now Russia has to carefully defuse the darn thing. The prank itself was just the last in a long line of foolish American military escapades that have ended in humiliation for us, most recently the Afghan fiasco. At best, this one in Ukraine — which we started in 2014 — is on-track to sink NATO, plunge Europe into cold and darkness, and put the USA out of business.”

    • Rodster February 20, 2023 at 7:32 am

      NATO and the US will keep escalating until they get punched in the mouth. That’s not the issue here and is one, that JHK doesn’t even consider. The fact of the matter is that this has all been scripted to collapse the system.

      Russia has given so many redlines both to NATO and the US that they no longer are taken seriously. This all feels like a WWE wrestling match. To the unsuspecting fan, it all looks real but in reality, the outcome was ALL scripted behind the scenes. It was the same dog and pony show in Taiwan with the Chinese huffing and puffing about the imperialist America. All this has done is to accelerate the move to a one world currency by aligning the East to be integrated with the rest of the world when the reset takes place.

      And the winner is? A one world government, spearheaded by the UN, with the IMF issuing a global digital currency.

  • Dennis February 22, 2023 at 8:13 pm

    OT: Pandemics, Famine and War – Globalists are AT WAR with humanity

  • Serge February 23, 2023 at 10:33 am

    About False Reality and Global PsyOps:
    Kabuki theater and False West/East paradigm: again and again!
    This is definitely a legendary series.

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