![](https://alt-market.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/RussiaDrone1-1024x633.jpg)
By Brandon Smith
In my article ‘Russia Is About To Overrun Ukraine’s Defenses – Why Are There No Peace Negotiations’ published in May, I outlined my reasons for predicting a near term collapse of Ukrainian front line defenses and a sweeping territory grab by Russian forces. Since the early months of the war my primary argument has been that Ukraine is trying to hide steep declines in manpower, and that this ruse would eventually be exposed. Bottom line? Wars are won by men, not by DARPA technology and suitcases of fiat cash.
A year ago mainstream analysts said Ukrainians troops (with NATO’s help) would soon destroy the Russian military and party on the beaches of Crimea. Today, the establishment admits manpower shortages are a reality and they admit Russia is overrunning Ukraine’s defensive positions all over the front. Soon, Russia will control the entirety of the Donbas region and beyond using attrition warfare.
The “experts” have no idea what they’re talking about, or, they’re lying to the public on purpose. Either way their opinions are not to be trusted.
As a student of history (and of military tactics) I can only relate to you what I see with an objective eye. I’m not in Ukraine and not on the front lines looking from both sides (and neither are the experts). I’m not privy to special intel and I don’t have access to the war rooms in Kyiv or the Kremlin (and neither are the experts). My goal here is NOT to break down a play-by-play of the war, I only hope to point out the greater truths being uncovered as the situation unfolds.
The kind of war we are seeing in Ukraine has not been fought by a western military since Korea. When it comes to industrial scale attrition warfare there are NO REAL EXPERTS in the western world still working at the Department of Defense. They don’t exist.
It is here that I want to begin because there are many patriots in the US preparing for what we believe will be widespread internal and external conflagration – Regional wars in multiple nations as well as rebellions here at home. What do the events in Ukraine teach us about the future of war? What classic assumptions have been debunked and what are the odds of success in the new strategic world? Let’s get started…
Maneuver Warfare Is Dying
The core emphasis of maneuver warfare is the use of initiative and surprise; the fast coordination of units to envelop the enemy before he realizes what is happening. It relies on shock and awe to demoralize, the idea being that the enemy can be defeated by chasing him down and using superior technology to render his defensive positions useless (the doctrine of the Vietnam War). It’s hard to say if these tactics ever really worked, but what we know now is that they will not work in future wars.
NATO doctrine in particular is proving to be quite useless. It relies too heavily on minimizing losses to highly trained officers. All maneuver warfare requires finely tuned tactics combined with technological know-how. Once experienced officers are shot down replacing them is difficult. Where Russia might be able to sustain hundreds-of-thousands of casualties, western armies are often broken by a fraction of those losses.
US patriots would do well to remember this. An enemy using maneuver doctrine loses when his best trained soldiers and officers are dead and he cannot coordinate fast attacks. An enemy using attrition doctrine loses when he is required to rush into an attack. Losing resources will force him to rush.
Drones Have Changed Everything
A big game changer is drones: Small cheap air surveillance with 4K cameras that are difficult to counter. Both Russia and NATO are quickly learning the threat these devices represent on the battlefields of Ukraine, and no, I’m not talking about the exploding FPV drones that chase down soldiers. I suspect most of those videos are fake anyway.
The real danger is in constant air based surveillance, 24/7, around the clock, always watching. Maneuver warfare requires the swift relocation of larger units without the enemy being aware; with cheap drones this is no longer possible. All large scale troop movements can be predicted and countered using nothing more than a handful of $3000 toys.
This is why Russia shifted quickly into attrition tactics. Now, they push their front line forward a few hundred yards at a time instead of trying to gain miles of territory in wild offensives. The DoD thinks maneuver tactics are still viable, but in order to successfully maneuver without the enemy’s knowledge you must fully control the skies. With drones, no one controls the skies anymore. It’s a free-for-all.
Infrastructure And Resource Devastation Is More Important Than Killing The Enemy
In 2022 during the Russian pull back many pro-Ukraine pundits cheered, proclaiming the war would soon be over. I warned in multiple articles that Russia was not retreating from the battle, only establishing a more solid front. I also predicted that Russia would immediately begin systematic bombardment of Ukraine’s utility grids. This is exactly what happened less than a month later.
I don’t think many in the west are aware of the level of destruction that has been dealt to Ukraine’s infrastructure. The majority of the country is without power for large parts of the day and the situation is only getting worse. Their water resources are limited at best. Only the grids serving major cities like Kyiv are afforded repair, and these repairs are a band-aid.
Patriots already plan for grid own scenarios, but they should also recognize the value of infrastructure attacks on an enemy that relies heavily on conventional logistics. Ukraine might be brought down, not by invading troops but by failing electricity and lack of clean water.
Smaller, Faster And More Discreet – The Future Of Combat
Interestingly, commanders in Ukraine on both sides are beginning to rely more and more on small units with a limited footprint. The name of the game in war today is “small signature” deployments. This is the use of squads to reduce visual and thermal signature and prevent targeting by drones or artillery. In other words, massive conventional armies are turning to guerrilla tactics as a way to survive and achieve successful strikes on defensive positions.
I could actually foresee an era when wars are ONLY fought using small teams of soldiers, supported by a host of drones and long range ordnance. Tanks are mostly useless now. Traditional air power is being slowly negated. Battalion sized movements are impossible without being quickly countered and even platoon sized elements are identified before they ever reach their destination.
Instead of moving in big groups that are easily targeted the Russians in particular are relying on a flurry of small unit attacks over a wide area using fast transportation (like motorcycles). They hit numerous targets along hundreds of miles of the front, forcing the Ukrainians to stretch out their defenses and resources. This is usually the way in which guerrillas fight; now everyone is doing it.
The Time Of The Guerrilla Is At Hand
The events in Ukraine showcase the many weaknesses of conventional armies. American patriots have been told for decades that any attempt to defend ourselves against an authoritarian government backed by a technologically advanced military machine is pointless. Our “AR15s can’t do anything against an F-16,” right?
We are now discovering the opposite is true. F-16’s are useless to Ukraine. What their soldiers want more than anything right now is more training for recruits, more thermal and night vision devices, more drones, better optics for their rifles and better gear for front line fighters. Jets and tanks are a novelty.
With the proliferation of cheap drones, for the first time ever civilian defense groups now have the ability to put eyes (and advanced weapons) in the sky. They can track larger enemy elements and prevent surprise attacks that anti-insurgent forces rely on. That is to say, guerrillas will still have the element of surprise but traditional forces will not.
Going Underground – The Return Of The Tunnel Rats
Americans first encountered intricate underground defenses in the Pacific Theater during WWII (Okinawa being the most impressive example). We saw them again in North Korea and yet again in Vietnam. In Ukraine the method is starting to become more common.
I would argue that future wars will be launched mainly from underground installations and tunnel systems. Drones rely on exploiting three-dimensional movement and are useless in enclosed spaces. This is a method that patriots need to adopt. Tunnel building will be a mainstay for decades to come.
Every Aspect Of War Will Now Be Televised
As long as the internet is a functional part of everyday life wars will now be recorded on an intimate scale never seen before. Every battle, every tiny movement or firefight, every win and every loss and every casualty will be documented. This means that web-based propaganda will become integral to any war effort.
In other words, governments will seek to implant fake news and fake video footage everywhere. The goal will be to make the fantasy indiscernible from fact and confuse the public on what is actually happening. This condition is brutally apparent in the Ukraine war where at least half the population of the west still thinks Ukraine is “winning.” The more duped the population, the easier it will be to convince them to support ongoing operations and even conscription.
The information war will become more important that the actual war. Patriots will have to understand how to deconstruct propaganda as much as they will have to know how to shoot.
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I couldn’t help but notice how, Zelenskyy’s speech to congress month’s ago about “his” war was the same as Netanyaho’s speech about “his” war, just the other day. Demanding Americans give more, more, more of our supply resources and money to them so they can win, and congress applauded for it. :/
Just yesterday I heard a guest on Brian Kilmeade’s (propagandizing) show bash Biden’s out of sorts thinking using his Forgiveness program as an example, and how ridiculous it is “American’s can not afford the Forgiveness program for college loans, it would cost billions.” (By the way I am NOT in favor of the Forgiveness program.) Yet we can afford to send billions to Zelenskyy and Netanyaho?
My money taken from me, under the guise of taxes, etc. to be use in other countries to fight war basically supported by me! (I do not use the words “we” or “us” just speaking for myself.)
Brandon said, ‘The more duped the population, the easier it will be to convince them to support ongoing operations and even conscription.
Brandon said, ‘In other words, governments will seek to implant fake news and fake video footage everywhere.’
Sly, harmful programing IS in everything. I especially see it when I seek entertainment.
Some how the Christian nation of America became the bank for wars all over the planet,…
By deconstructing propa, you mean by deductive n inductive reasoning, combined with real knowledge of history?
I’m referring more to breaking down propaganda for the general public – Showing them how they’re being lied to in an effective way.
Honestly brother the vast majority of people are just beyond CLUELESS about virtually everything in life. I work as a Recruiter and oh my god – dummies everywhere I turn truly.
That used to be true. Today, over 30% of American adults consider themselves preppers and are aware of the greater agenda. We are making headway. The globalists just wnat you to THINK we are isolated.
An excellent analysis and one you do not see anywhere else, thank you. Just one question; is not the rumored development of EMP weapons (by Iran and others) another potential game changer in regards to the drones?
Directed electronic interference is being used on the battlefield now, but I doubt EMP weapons will be very common because of how complicated they are to produce. Cheap and simple seems to be the answer. Every squad should have a guy with countermeasures like a semi-auto shotgun to kill attack drones, and there should be drone operators on hand using their drones to take down high flying enemy devices. This is what they’re doing on both sides in Ukraine after learning some painful lessons.
Another brillant post, Brandon!
I suggest readers to read this article you wrote in 2016 – still relevant today:
“How globalists will try to control populations after the collapse”.
“…governments will seek to implant fake news and fake video footage everywhere. The goal will be to make the fantasy indiscernible from fact and confuse the public on what is actually happening.” Indeed!
“It is not a matter of what is true that counts, but a matter of what is perceived to be true.” -Henry Kissinger(1923-2023), former US Secretary of State and former NSC head(Nixon administration) and a top globalist figure.
P.S: This episode of the “X-Files” series (season 11, 2018) was filmed during Trump’s first term…:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-EfEaFWh3w
“We’ll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the American public believes is false “
William Casey (former CIA director from the early eighties)(also an OSS operative in WW2)
What does this say?
That the goal is to always deceive!
Seems pretty freaking accurate doesn’t it.
@Black Cat, Good point.
Also, don’t forget Edward Bernays (“the king of modern propaganda”) and his major book “Propaganda” (published in 1928).
Here’s another excellent take on this subject from John Michael Greer. “Deindustrial Warfare: A First Reconnaissance”
https://www.ecosophia.net/deindustrial-warfare-a-first-reconaissance/
“… many patriots in the US preparing for what we believe will be widespread internal and external conflagration – Regional wars in multiple nations as well as rebellions here at home.”
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One must always be cognizant of the Third Great War long promised by the sickening Dark Siders. Regional wars have been a staple of Planet Earth for just about… forever. But the Really Big Ones… those come with less frequency. And Our World is getting to within a hair’s-breath of launching into the Third Catastrophe which the Dark Siders have long promised will be devastating to the Planet and which will wipe out most life upon the Earth.
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When you detest human life… you won’t be satisfied until you just about wipe it out completely. And these Dark Siders have always hated human beings. They do not see Themselves as humans but only as gods… so They have no loyalty or concern for humans or the Planet.
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“Patriots already plan for grid own scenarios…”.
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It is our personal duty to prepare ourselves the best ways we can to ready to try to deal with what the Hidden Hands throw at us. But no amount of off-grid preparation will be enough to meet the devastation that They plan to unleash when They feel the time is right. There is no defense again Planetary Erasure.
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‘Ukraine’ could be used as one of Their excuses to get the obliteration party started. Or, the always-raging and insane Middle East… or some other spot that no one currently has their eyes on.
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We humans have a built-in blind spot so as to not become traumatized. In the back of our minds.. we’re always expecting that there will be a Tomorrow. Most of us lack the ability to even conceive of being erased and gone in one flash – with no more tomorrows. It’s just too painful to consider. And the Dark Ones also count on our desire to not contemplate our erasusre or our survival instincts would really kick in and They would not like that one bit.
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“Every Aspect Of War Will Now Be Televised”
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Yes… that is until the screen just goes Dead Blank. With no one there anymore to look at the screen anyway.
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“Patriots will have to understand how to deconstruct propaganda as much as they will have to know how to shoot.”
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Propaganda has allowed the Dark Side to flourish and prosper. Propaganda is used to dehumanize people and steal way our power and agency. Even our very sanity,
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Propaganda is truly the voice of The Devil… the Deceiver… the False One.
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Wanna know what The Devil is thinking? Turn on the TV or look at the Little Box of Magic Dancing Pixels and you’ll quickly find out — The Devil’s Voice Box to a Planet that has surrendered the ability to think for themselves.
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Creedence Clearwater Revival describes our Times well…
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“Thought it was a nightmare – Lord it was so true…
They told me don’t go walking slow – The devil’s on the loose
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Better run through the jungle… Better run through the jungle
Better run through the jungle… Whoa don’t look back to see.”
Brandon which drone would you recommend. For non-commercial home use.
I would recommend building your own. The DJI drones and many others are now required to have a GPS tracking ID mechanism that law enforcement can use to find drone users. Some drones you can program to remove this function, some you can’t. Better to just build your own if you have the time to learn.
Thanks
never pondered the notion of building my own… is that akin to the 80%er type thing where you are just assembling a series of pre-fabbed parts, some of which are even kits… or are we talking truly from scratch?
It’s basically like the 80% AR idea – Parts are easy to buy and assemble. The programming is the harder part but there’s YouTube tutorials on that.
“When it comes to industrial scale attrition warfare there are NO REAL EXPERTS in the western world still working at the Department of Defense. They don’t exist.”
Yes, there are and yes, we do. But, no one’s listening. Same effect but, let’s be clear what’s really happening.
As usual and throughout history, tragedy has to happen before they listen. Unfortunately, we’re in for a very ugly strategic surprise.
No there aren’t and no, we don’t. Sorry, but if you have no EXPERIENCE in carrying out attrition tactics in the field then you are not an expert in anything. There’s not a person alive in the DoD with that kind of experience in 2024. Understand something and be careful about buying into delusions of grandeur; academic study into strategy can make it possible to predict what an enemy is going to do, but it won’t make you capable of doing anything about it. For that, you will need leadership that has encountered those tactics in actual combat. The west does not have that.
if i still cared at all about the empire’s warmongering abroad, russia’s years of live experience would keep me up at night. Even if our armed forces pivoted heavily to the model of warfare we are seeing and that some voices out there have been saying (tho frankly, i just don’t think it would whet the MIC’s whistle nearly enough to do so), it would all be academic guesses at best, right now. until they start throwing our men into an actual meat grinder, they simply will not understand where this is headed.
Confusing the Republics People with propaganda is key to this war–One must learn to read their code………enter The Smith-Mundt Moderation Act of 2012–signed into law by “Barack Obama”. Gives the Corporate held “Government” legal cover to use Propaganda overtly or otherwise. The Smith-Mundt Act FORBADE the use of Propaganda’s use against the American People following WWII until Obama “Modernized” it.
short video—-https://www.bitchute.com/video/hOGTFpBPPXKB
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladislav_Surkov
Thanks so much for comment, video and link. Needed it.
Regarding Russian air defenses:
https://infobrics.org/post/41816
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Behind the curtains and fog of war – included propaganda war -, it seems that Ukraine President Zelenski wants – does he have any other choice?! – to negotiate peace with Russia.
Sure, cynical Western leaders and NATO have known from day one that Ukraine has already lost the war. Why?! For Russia (officially), it is an “existential war”.
According to many in the media, Zelensky was ready to strike a deal with Russia as far back as a couple of years ago and Boris Johnson on behest of the US Neocons sent him to Ukraine to tell Zelensky, there will be NO peace deal with the Russians. Zelensky knew back then that a war with Russia was not winnable.
Tucker Carlson in his visit to Australia confirmed that as well. Zelensky wanted to broker a peace deal and Washington said no.
Great article, I wish I’d found you before now, thank you ZeroHedge!!
Another important factor in this war is the importance of partisans to the Russian fight. With mobile phones and instant communication, the Russians are flooded daily with juicy target coordinates which they can pick off at will meaning that the whole of Ukraine is more or less the front line.
The Patriots should take a step back now and count there blessings, Ukraine is lost, always was a stupid foolhardy adventure, and concentrate on killing civilians in Gaza and the West Bank and hopefully many civilians in South Lebanon, they’re very good at doing that!
Well you really got that one wrong.
Only to someone who knows nothing about military strategy and thinks a pointless 10km suicide rush across a rural Russian border is a “win”. If you are referring to Kursk, it was a desperate move that failed. Most of the Ukrainian troops and their armor have already been destroyed and they are running around Kursk trying to avoid Russian FABs. Soon they’ll have to leave back over the border because they won’t have the logistics to stay. Meanwhile, the Russians continue to overrun actual fortified Ukrainian positions in the east. So no, I am still right. I don’t think anyone knows why the Ukrainians made such a stupid move, other than as a PR stunt. There’s nothing in Kursk worth sacrificing troops for.