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Russia Is About To Overrun Ukraine’s Defenses – Why Are There No Peace Negotiations?

May 14, 2024 23 Comments

By Brandon Smith

There are two classic propaganda narratives used by governments when it comes to keeping the public invested in any war campaign that does nothing to advance their national interests:

First, there’s the “commitment” lie, which says that once you step in to support a war effort you then must stay exponentially committed, even if that war effort is exposed as pointless. Anytime the public pulls back from that war in a bid to reconsider what purpose it serves they are ridiculed for potentially “risking lives” and setting the stage for defeat. In other words, you must support the effort blindly. You’re not allowed to examine the conflict rationally, because who wants to be blamed for losing a war?

Second, there’s the “domino effect” lie, which says that if you allow a particular “enemy” to win in one conflict, they will automatically be emboldened to invade other countries until they own the entire planet. It’s the same claim used to trick the American populace into supporting the war in Vietnam and it rarely turns out to be true. In fact, nations that engage in regional wars tend to be so weakened by the fighting that they don’t have the means to move on to another country even if they wanted to.

In the US we heard both of these narratives heading into the recent congressional vote for billions more in monetary and logistical aid to Ukraine. Neocons and Democrats worked together to force the bill through with a percentage of true conservatives fighting to stop it. Those conservatives were attacked relentlessly by the media for “helping the Russians”, but the reality that no one in the mainstream wants to talk about is that Ukraine has already lost the war.

No amount of additional funding or arms shipments are going to help them, and it has nothing to do with conservatives questioning the validity of war spending. Anyone who has a basic understanding of military strategy knows that the key to winning is ALWAYS manpower first, logistics second. Not superior technology or armaments, not superior cash and certainly not popular support from foreign interests.

This is especially true in a war of attrition, and attrition is in fact the method being used by Russia to systematically whittle down Ukraine’s forces. However, the western media refuses to discuss what’s really happening and has been acting as a hype machine for Ukraine instead.

In September of 2022 I noted that the Russian pullback to the Donbas was not the “retreat” the western media made it out to be. Many establishment talking heads claimed that this was the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin and that Ukrainian forces would be taking Crimea in the near future.

I argued that Russia was likely trying to consolidate its position as western artillery and tanks flooded into Ukraine. I also suggested that Russia wanted to avoid urban combat in major cities while tens-of-thousands of seasoned mercenaries were rushing to the front from the US and Europe. I predicted that the Russian pullback was in preparation for surgical strikes on western Ukraine’s resources and grid infrastructure.

With Ukraine’s grid heavily damaged, a large portion of the population would leave the cities and head for Europe until the war played out. Putin has specifically avoided major fighting within larger urban centers for a reason. Driving civilians out of metropolitan areas would make it easier for Russia to strike Ukraine in a secondary offensive without risking extensive collateral damage in the form of civilian casualties. This is exactly what has happened.

Almost 7 million Ukrainians left the country outright in the past 2 years, with another 6 million displaced (mostly from larger cities). Currently, Russia is moving to push civilians out of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second biggest city, and they will probably be successful given their momentum and the destruction of water and power resources. With civilians out of the way a more aggressive attack can then be initiated.

Russia has been using an “artillery bubble” as a tool to protect ground forces as they push an advance. Meaning, troops will only attack as far as the artillery can reach. Artillery is vital to a large scale offensive. Coincidentally, Russia doubled its importation of explosive materials commonly used for artillery in the past several months. They are now reportedly producing triple the amount of artillery that NATO is providing to Ukraine.

Mainstream analysts claim the push towards Kharkiv move might be a feint, allowing Russia to increase the size of its buffer zone. They continue to assert that Russia doesn’t have the forces necessary for a major offensive. I would say it depends on how weak Ukraine’s defensive lines actually are. Russia has been consistently using large scale Pincer movements to envelop defensive positions and destroy them.

In the past two weeks alone Russia has gained considerable ground. Russian troops recently made confirmed advances northwest of Svatove (Luhansk Oblast), near Avdiivka (Donetsk Oblast), in Robotyne (Zaporizhzhya Oblast), and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War reported on May 6th. The reason for this is relatively simple – Ukraine lacks the manpower to effectively establish defense in-depth. All the reports coming from the front support this theory.

That is to say, Ukraine’s defensive lines are a facade with no secondary positions or trenches to stall Russian breakthroughs. Once the Russians cut the main line there’s nothing much stopping them from gaining large stretches of ground. Some analysts have blamed this development on a lack of Ukrainian foresight or strategic preparedness, but I would argue that they just don’t have enough people to defend more than a single forward line.

My position is backed by numerous reports of the government’s desperate struggles with conscription. For the past six months the average age of Ukraine recruits is 43 years old. Meaning, youth recruitment is waning, either because younger people don’t want to fight and are avoiding the draft by leaving the country, or too many have died.

The conscription problem has been hidden by the western media for many months now, but even corporate news platforms are starting to admit that there is a severe lack of new recruits. Front line fighters have been complaining for months that they need to be cycled away from the trenches and given rest.

Another bad sign is the fact that Ukraine has been using Special Forces soldiers for trench duty. These units are trained specifically for asymmetric hit-and-run warfare, not sitting in mud holes waiting for artillery strikes to rain down on their fixed and exposed positions. It seems like pure stupidity, but it makes sense if Ukraine is actually running out of people to hold their only defensive line.

The cover-up of massive casualties is something I mentioned in past articles on the war and I think it bears repeating: Western warhawks continue to claim that it will be “cheaper” to use Ukrainian soldiers to fight Russia than to fight a larger war down the road with American and European lives.

The sociopathy behind this rationale is disturbing. The lack of manpower in Ukraine cannot be solved. It is a product of endless death paid for with our tax dollars. NATO has prolonged the fighting with funding and arms, but not to win, only to sacrifice more people in a bloody conflict Ukraine is destined to lose.

Their argument also assumes that Americans and Europeans are going to jump blindly into military service in a war against Russia. I don’t know about Europeans, but I do know for a fact that most Americans are not going to buy in and will refuse a draft. The majority of the US public doesn’t even want to send further aid to Ukraine; they certainly aren’t going to go die for Ukraine. The arrogance of the warhawks is mind boggling.

The bottom line is this: Ukraine is about to be overrun. They didn’t have the manpower to effectively launch a counteroffensive. They don’t have the manpower to establish defense in-depth. And, they are using their most seasoned soldiers as cannon fodder in the trenches.

This dynamic demands that diplomatic solutions be entertained, but no one seems to be talking about that. Why?

As I theorized in my article ‘World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided’, the underlying plan may very well be to try to force Americans and Europeans to accept an expanding war with Russia. The western public has been bombarded with lies about Ukraine’s ability to win; when they lose people will be shocked and incensed by the outcome.

Maybe the elites hope that the populace will be so angry about the loss that they will rally around a larger war effort by NATO? The French government has already asserted that they are willing to send troops to Ukraine in direct confrontation with Russia, while Lithuania and Poland have said they will not rule out the possibility.

Now is the time for peace negotiations, BEFORE Ukraine is overrun. Will this happen? Probably not. But when diplomacy is removed from the table completely the only conclusion we can come to is that a greater war is desired. And when greater war is desired, we also have to conclude that our leadership has something substantial to gain by putting the world at risk.

You might be on the side of Ukraine, you might be on the side of Russia, you might not care about either side, but there’s no denying that this war is being escalated by special interests and we need to ask why?


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  • Kaleidoscoper May 14, 2024 at 2:40 pm

    “we need to ask why?”

    I think your previous 2-3 articles in a row address the why quite well… the elites understand they sit on a precipice of either total control or losing control of the situation. the best way to force it in their favor is:
    1-significant depopulation
    2-draconian new financial command and control

  • Save Our United States May 14, 2024 at 3:05 pm

    The motivation to go into Ukraine is highly suspect – perhaps it was yet another opportunity for congressional “warhawks” and defense contractors to stuff their pockets at the expense of the taxpayers? Americans would likely not object to supporting Ukraine if it was a just war, every conflict we entered into didn’t turn into an endless war that we retreat from, the EU contributed their fair share and we weren’t broke.

    • John B May 14, 2024 at 8:13 pm

      Have you listened to Lindsey Graham (R – South Carolina) recently , He a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee & is throwing a literal tantrum because we aren’t giving Nukes to countries like Israel & Ukraine… This was the guy that stated that the best money the US ever spent was to kill Russians – he is literally insane and a big a warmonger as they come… How are the people of S. Carolina allowing this guy to represent them? WTF is going on there?

      • Avatar photo
        Brandon Smith May 14, 2024 at 8:25 pm

        Incumbent senators are almost impossible to get rid of. Look at how long John McCain stayed in office even though everyone in Arizona hated him. The GOP simply won’t allow newcomer candidates to run against senior senators. They shut them down cold.

        • Chuck Morrison May 15, 2024 at 10:49 pm

          Another instance where the genius of the founders wasn’t considered: changing election of Senators to popular vote. Easier to lean on your state representatives to get rid of a nasty piece of work like Graham or McCain than to push the swampy party around. Now, of course, it takes an almost impossible number of signatures to get a recall initiative on the ballot.

          Between this and the unconstitutional Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929 that froze House membership at 435 easily purchased grifters, there hasn’t actually been government by and for the people in a long time, and the only way to fix it will require revolutionary action to restore the constitution.
          I don’t think it will happen. As you have said, WWIII is inevitable. This is how they write off the debt and cull the herd. I’m hoping freedom survives in small, isolated, independent communities.

      • Naatok May 16, 2024 at 7:22 am

        Lindsey Graham is a lying, oath breaking, war-mongering globalist shill.
        All I need to know about Lindsey Graham came from his support of the NDAA 2012+, with these infamous words from the floor of the U.S. Senate in 2011:
        “And when they say, ‘I WANT MY LAWYER,’ You tell them, ‘SHUT UP. YOU DON’T GET A LAWYER.’”
        – US Senator Lindsey Graham

        He was referring to United States Citizens caught affiliating with Al CIA-duh or other terrorist organizations. I don’t give a rodent’s rear end what they are accused of, American Citizens enjoy trial by a jury of their peers. The only exception to this I can support is military courts martial when there is no draft in effect.

    • Chevrus May 15, 2024 at 1:15 pm

      It is worth noting that the US staged 2 coups in 10 years with the most recent being in 2014. This is when the wheels real y began to turn. The US funded armed and trained the UAF including the “punishment battalions” that rushed into the Donbas region at the outset of the civil conflict to enact their special rendition of ethnic cleansing.
      To even entertain the notion that ‘we have no business there’ is simply not an informed perspective given the involvement of US clandestine agencies since WW2.

  • Rodster May 14, 2024 at 4:48 pm

    My favorite quote from Gerald Celente is: “Trade wars, currency wars, world wars. When all else fails, the take you to war”. The entire system is collapsing. Perhaps they want to use an all out war as a cover.

  • DB May 15, 2024 at 6:22 am

    There are no negotiations because the West needs an escalation. They need to keep this going so that it forms the basis for a wider war. The Russians have effectively threatened the West into backing down…for now, but the calculus is inescapable. War is coming.

  • Serge May 15, 2024 at 6:57 am

    Indeed, a part of russian military strategy is clear: in Kharkiv, as before in Bakhmut and Avdeyevka, the aim is to exhaust the Ukrainian army and Western munitions. Russia “plays” long run. Also, i think since 1st day of war – not alone to think that -, it would be very, very difficult for Ukraine and NATO to defeat Russia. Why?
    1)Since he took office (2000), one of Putin’s priorities has been to modernize his army, and the results are in.
    2)For Russia is an existential war. Remember crisis missiles(Cuba, 1962)…
    3)And the Russian economy appears to be resilient, unlike the European economies, in particular.

    Regarding the US military and possible involvement in Ukraine, take a look at this interview:


  • a May 15, 2024 at 7:42 am

    There is another consideration. The divide at the nation-state level between East and West is false. The Money Cartel controlling “both sides” is continuing the move of assets under the authoritarian models of the East already in place and bankrupting and demoralizing the West to destroy the last vestiges of personal freedom. This is simply another step on the path to World government. The war(s) is real for the people but the conflict at the top is not.

    • CPA May 15, 2024 at 3:12 pm

      Add to that using brics to destroy the dollar. Our government had done a lot of evil, but putin is no Saint and should not be lauded.

  • francis reps May 15, 2024 at 10:00 am

    The Authoritative Rand Corporation could have stoped this terrible slaughter if they simply pointed out that Ukraine is smaller than Texas ; which is seven percent of the US Land Mass ; and Russia ;which covers Eleven Time Zones is almost Twice the size of the USA. Russia’s population is almost 150 million people versus Ukraine’s population of only 25 million people ; if that. Western Politicians are lawyers who believe their own lies. Russian politicians are mostly hard headed Engineers.

  • Roundball Shaman May 15, 2024 at 11:19 am

    “… there’s the ‘commitment’ lie, which says that once you step in to support a war effort you then must stay exponentially committed, even if that war effort is exposed as pointless.”
    No one in America (or the World, anywhere) ever voted for that to become some kind of sacred rule. Such a policy statement is of course nonsense to buttress actions that never should have been started in the first place. Doubling-down on an absurdity and bad policy action and the more bad acts that follow.
    “… there’s the ‘domino effect’ lie, which says that if you allow a particular ‘enemy’ to win in one conflict, they will automatically be emboldened to invade other countries until they own the entire planet.”
    Let’s see. What has history shown? When has the domino effect been proven to work? That would be… NEVER. Regimes over the ages have tried and tried again. But it just doesn’t happen. More nonsense to buttress ridiculous policy thinking.
    “Ukraine is about to be overrun.”
    The West started this whole thing by ignoring agreements made with post-Soviet Russia and fostering a coup in the Uke. Russia could have ended this thing quickly but has tried to negotiate a peaceful resolution to this exercise in bad Western policy. But the West has refused to resolve this peacefully and constructively.
    There just is no good money to be made in resolving things peacefully and constructively. Hey, we’ve got thousands upon thousands of MIC lives counting on the orgy of money grave train to keep on chugging along. It’s for the MIC Machine’s CHILDREN!
    “… there’s no denying that this war is being escalated by special interests and we need to ask why?”
    1. MONEY.
    2. Still too many Useless Eaters on this Planet.
    3. Today’s Ruling Empire Wannbe needs to control the entire Planet to become the first Empire to rule the entire Globe! Hey, somebody has to be first.
    And reason #4… MONEY.
    Actually.. it’s not complicated. There IS just one single word to explain… everything that goes on here… and everywhere else.

  • Defector May 15, 2024 at 11:34 am

    What is to gain for the Western elites from the WWIII?
    The debt bubble is about to burst.
    What when there is no bid for governement bonds ( TBs, Guilds, Bunds etc)?
    That is approaching. So the war solves it all is what they think. And the profits for the miltary contractors play their part
    I am Lithuanian, and I can attest that the war propaganda is in full swing here. Multiple new draft offices are being established across our tiny country. A new military draft law is about to be passed. So yes, they are pushing us into war.
    And what about the republic of Georgia?
    Seems they intend to open the second front from there.
    Thank Brandon for what you do, keep it like that.

  • Patricat May 15, 2024 at 12:21 pm

    I think the bottom line is what the globalist want. What the people want is not a factor.
    They have a goal, they control the chess pieces and the money, and they do as they will.
    We are just chaff to be fleeced and murdered.

  • D3F1ANT May 15, 2024 at 12:36 pm

    No peace negotiations because Zelenskyyyy and Biden and the rest of them see that the window to enrich themselves with nicely laundered American tax dollars is closing! They want to prolong it as long as possible to milk every last drop…

    • Avatar photo
      Brandon Smith May 15, 2024 at 12:47 pm

      Hmm, I think money is secondary for the elites. They want a global crisis. They can print their own money.

  • Jasonn May 15, 2024 at 2:25 pm

    Ukraine has a bunch of new billionaires thanks to the American taxpayers, but their military is still underfunded?

    Go figure!

  • Richard+Ruggiero May 15, 2024 at 8:56 pm

    Russia and China have the most extensive agent of influence networks within the US. The Venona decrypts show how Stalin was able to completely direct the US towards his ends during WWII and this allowed the Soviet Union to enslave half of Europe and the CCP to come to power and exterminate 70+ million Chinese over the following decades. I think it’s safe to say that little happens within America without being approved by Russia and the CCP and this goes as far as installing their Quisling to do their bidding.

    Is Biden Putin’s man? What would Biden be doing differently if he was?

    I don’t believe the left, which never met a dictator they didn’t love, has any real hate for Putin, at least not those running the simulacrum.

    What does Putin want? Destroy the US militarily? Destroy the dollar so BRICS can be dominant? Fund subversive groups within the US? Eliminate all vestiges of the things which made America great? Isn’t it funny that Biden wants all these things too?

    What do you think?

  • eckbach May 15, 2024 at 9:24 pm

    Scatter thou the people that delight in war.
    Psalm 68:30

  • Jeff Jones May 16, 2024 at 7:39 pm

    If the elites want a new monetary system that is global, they have to continue to escalate these bogus wars and more people will need to die. If the two main wars stopped right now(Ukraine and Israel), people would not be willing to accept a new currency and abandon the current way of living. Unfortunately, the collapse of this global economy, by using these wars is still in its beginning phases. They aren’t close to being done yet. All the while in the background the WHO and UN are making moves to gain more power and control over the global population

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