By Brandon Smith
The last time global energy markets witnessed a shock similar to what we might see this year was during the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. Tensions were escalating in the aftermath of the Yom Kippur War when the Arab Coalition launched a surprise attack against Israel. OPEC nations joined forces to cut off oil to Israeli allies including the US. This froze around 15% of oil exports to America, triggering market speculation, hording and price inflation.
The infection spread to Asian markets long dependent on the Middle East for energy resources. This slowed industrial capacity and many governments imposed rationing and price controls.
Images of long lines of cars at gas stations and people filling up extra containers remain burned into the collective memory of anyone who lived through that era. However, the real threat to the US was not supply shortages; rather, it was the prospect of a market cascade.
Stagflation coupled with supply chain vulnerabilities were exacerbated by public panic. Stock markets also plunged into recession territory in the expectation of an industrial slowdown. The embargo lasted only five months, but the damage was extensive.
Things have changed quite dramatically since the 1970s. The US is far less dependent on energy resources from the Middle East, though, any shocks to the global oil trade have the ability to ripple out and affect American markets. Furthermore, Arab oil producers are now largely allied with the US, which means there’s less risk of a prolonged shutdown due to conflict.
In the case of the Strait of Hormuz, any direct damage to America is minimal. Only 7% of all oil shipments to the US actually travel through the Homruz, and, Venezuelan oil is helping to fill that gap. The greater danger is rooted in globalism and the interdependent trade system.
For example, US allies like Australia, India, Japan, and the Philippines are heavily exposed to the Hormuz shutdown. Australia is currently one month away from supply shortages and the country has little to no backup. The Philippines has already declared a state of emergency and established ration policies; they have perhaps 2 months of emergency supplies. Japan is currently tapping into strategic oil reserves and they are boosting coal fired power.
China, is facing significant exposure, with 15% of their oil supplies coming directly from Iranian wells and around 35% of their total oil supply traveling through the Hormuz. China has around 4 months of reserves before crisis hits them like a freight train.
Most Asian countries that are reliant on oil and natural gas passing through the Hormuz have around two months before they start to see public panic and long lines at gas stations similar to 1973.
Iran claims that they intend to let “non-hostile ships” pass the strait, but they’ve stopped multiple Chinese ships this week after this announcement was made. It is likely that war conditions will continue for at least another month, and, in the worst case scenario, the Hormuz could remain closed well beyond the cutoff date for many at-risk countries. The longer the war goes on, the greater the chance of a market cascade.
I’ve noticed that there are some bought-and-paid-for “prognosticators” out there adding their own propaganda spin to these events, including the notion that the west is on the verge of collapse because of the Hormuz closure. In reality, the east is far more economically exposed than the west is to this war. That said, there are risks to the US, and they are reliant on how long the conflict lingers.
Energy Crisis, Election Dangers And Global Economic Warfare
As I noted in October of 2024 in my article “The Atlantic Council Has Big Plans For A War Between The US And Iran”, there has been a concerted effort among globalists to lure Americans and Europeans into long term conflicts with Iran and with Russia. As I noted in 2024:
“The establishment media reports that Iran hacked the Trump campaign’s election strategies and gave them to the Harris camp. There are also rumors spread by US intelligence agencies that Iran was working to have Trump assassinated. Are these claims true? There’s little public evidence available to prove it.
Maybe Iran really wants to take Trump down. Or, maybe this is part of a plot to ensure that Trump backs a full blown war with Iran should he win the election. Trump has said repeatedly that he intends to end the war in Ukraine upon his return to the White House. This would ruin over a decade of planning by the Atlantic Council. But what if they can sink the US into a different conflict with the same potential for a world war? That’s what Iran is – Another linchpin…”
I would note that “world war” can take many forms. It could be a war using economic weapons rather than nukes. It could be a series of proxy wars that spiral and spread.
The Ukraine theater serves as a proxy war in which Russia indirectly engages with NATO and Russia is now forced to sustain its military posture for far longer than it expected at a much higher cost. Iran has the potential to become another Ukraine, but one in which the US is trapped into expending military and economic assets while Russia and China drag out the costs.
In my June 2025 article, “The Iran Trap: Everyone Wants Americans To Fight Their Wars For Them”, I predicted:
“Iran will receive ample weaponry and intel from Russian sources, prolonging the conflict….”
The Kremlin has essentially admitted that this is already happening. Iran has shown uncharacteristic precision with some missile strikes exactly because they have access to Russian satellite intel and targeting. The Russians could very well be running Iran’s strategic operations, for all we know. I also argued that:
“On the political front there will be a deep divide between pro-Israel conservatives and anti-war conservatives. Trump will lose a large percentage of his base if the US deploys troops. Americans might hate leftists enough that this won’t matter in 2026, but they’re not going to give Neo-Cons a free pass, either.”
In other words, one of the biggest disasters that could happen for the US as a result of this war is that ideologically deranged Democrats and leftists regain enough political leverage post-midterms to disrupt any practical reforms and eventually bring back the woke nightmare we witnessed under the Biden Administration. If this happens, mass violent unrest in America is inevitable. Not to mention, war with Russia in Ukraine will be back on the table.
For large swaths of Asia, the disaster will be immediately visceral, including economic implosion, rationing and probably civil unrest. And, thanks to globalism, economic crisis in Asia has the ability to spread into western economies.
The BRIC nations have lost much of their leverage over the US Dollar that they had 10 years ago (China’s dollar and treasury holdings have been cut in half and exports from China to the US have dropped significantly), but they can still engage in enough economic warfare through trade disruptions to wreak havoc on US markets.
As I mentioned in recent articles, any disruption to the Yen-Carry trade is perhaps the biggest threat to the US economy right now, and this could be triggered through high energy prices in Japan; not as an attack, but as a basic consequence of market interdependency. All of this depends on the true objectives behind US operations in Iran.
Is the goal an occupation and complete regime change? Well, this is clearly what the Neo-Cons and Israel want. That kind of project could take years to complete and it would require a maximum US ground commitment. However, if Trump intended to pursue an occupation I think he would have committed tens of thousands of troops on day one.
Is the goal to simply destroy the Iranian ability to project military power outside of their country, or take control of the Strait of Hormuz? Walking away is not an option at this stage (the Hormuz cannot be left in the hands of the Iranians without leverage against them). So, this would be the easiest objective to complete with minimal US ground operations, bringing us to our best case scenario…
The Key To Ending The Iran War In Five Weeks
We constantly hear about international exposure to the Hormuz shutdown, but the media rarely mentions that Iran is the MOST exposed economy of all. For now, Iranian oil ships continue to pass through the strait and these vessels are Iran’s economic lifeline. Strategic estimates suggest that without the steady passage of these oil tankers, the Iranian economy would completely collapse within five weeks.
In fact, there is already information leaking out from Iran which suggests that an economic crash is happening right now. This will accelerate the Islamic regime’s willingness to negotiate.
If they don’t, Trump’s strategy will be a ground invasion of Kharg Island along with several other Islands that Iran uses to help secure the Hormuz. Kharg Island handles approximately 96% of Iran’s crude oil exports, making it the single greatest weakness of the regime.
But what if Kharg represents too much risk? The American public abhors even minimal military casualties, which is why we are politically ill equipped to weather a long term war. There is another way, and it’s much safer…
Iranian cargo ships can be targeted for seizure by a US blockade of the Persian Gulf well away from the narrow waters of the Hormuz. The ships could be destroyed, but I suspect the Department of Defense will try to avoid oil spills and ecological disasters. Instead, the best option is to capture Iran’s tankers and then redirect the oil to countries in danger of shortages. Iran has the option of shutting off GPS tracking for their vessels (shadow fleet), but this would not help them maneuver past a comprehensive US blockade.
In other words, I argue that the US could turn the tables on Iran and use their reliance on the Hormuz against them. With Iran’s economy in shambles, they will no longer be able to purchase missiles or drones for resupply from Russia and China. They won’t be able to pay for logistic resources for their military and they won’t be able to contain public unrest.
The Iranians would be forced to negotiate and the war would be over quickly with minimal risk to US troops. It’s the only option I see for returning energy markets to normal operations within a couple months while preventing a global crisis. Trump should treat any calls for long term ground occupation with suspicion; there is no need for this kind of military commitment. The war can be decided quickly through economic means.
If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch. Learn more about it HERE.
The U.S. government can print more dollars. It can borrow more money. But it cannot create more gold. There is only so much of it on this earth – and that’s exactly why central banks around the world are buying it at record levels. A physical Gold IRA lets you hold this finite, time-tested asset inside a tax-advantaged retirement account. Request your free info kit from Birch Gold Group and learn how simple it is to get started.
You can contact Brandon Smith at:
You can also follow me at –
TwitterX: @AltMarket1
25 Comments
Iran is playing the LONG game and that is according to several former CIA analysts and former military commanders. In their view, Iran has the upper hand. Iranian officials have said, they have prepared 25 years for this war. The US and Israel are fighting a 20th century war while Iran is fighting a 25th century battle, with strategic and military help from the Russians and Chinese. Iran chose an asymmetric war as their strategy to remove the US from the Middle East. Several of the GCC, US bases have either been heavily damaged or destroyed. According to former CIA analyst Larry Johnson, Iran has destroyed 6 highly expensive THAAD missile systems and the other day damaged several planes including an AWACS plane.
Just yesterday, they damaged the Kuwaiti desalination plant and warned other GCC members including Israel that they will be targets if the escalation continues. I don’t see Iran surrendering and neither do the various former CIA and military commanders as they view this war was unprovoked by USrael and Iran now views this as an existential threat.
Their strategy is to cripple if not collapse the global economy. The Houthis have threatened to close off the Red Sea which will further impact the global oil supply. A few days ago, Australia truckers were stranded from a lack of diesel fuel.
Europe will be further impacted and Europe is likely to enter into an economic depression. London based Alexander Mercouris said just a couple of days ago that London is already facing fuel shortages and the public is being warned that rolling blackouts will be taking places if the war continues.
Just today, Iran said they will reconsider building a nuclear bomb(s) in so many words. This was posted on RT and it says: “”Iranian MPs push to quit nuclear treaty as Trump claims ‘regime change’ win. Tehran’s participation in the 1968 accord became pointless after the US-Israeli attack, a high-ranking lawmaker has said
Tehran is “not seeking to develop a nuclear bomb, but we cannot simultaneously adhere to the rules of the game and be bombed,” he said.”
Iran definitely does NOT have the upper hand; their country is already in shambles. I remember these same claims being made about Hamas in Gaza and Gaza is now a pile of rubble and Hamas is able to do nothing. Keep in mind that the only reason Iran has any strike capacity is because of Barack Obama giving them hundreds of billions of dollars, which they used to advance their missile programs. The only leverage the Iranians have is the Strait of Hormuz and they are far more reliant on the strait than the US is. All the US has to do is blockade Iranian oil tankers and their economy will collapse within two months or less; this is why the regime now admits they are at the negotiating table (though they continue to posture). Iran will undoubtedly lose the war, the only question is will it take long enough that global oil markets in Asia hit crisis levels? I think the US will simply seize control of the strait.
We’ll have to agree to disagree.
Ha. Good job Rodster. You just popped-off BIGTIME, got some push-back and then just simply and completely crumbed into nothing. I guess you weren’t very sure of your arguments, eh? Not good enough for at least SOME kind of counter-point, regardless of how lame it might have been? That’s the kind of thing Rush Limbaugh used to refer to as a drive-by (shooting); pop off with some nonsense arguments/statements as you drive by at speed, wanting NOTHING to do with an actual discussion.
It looks to me like the many deep state globalist factions that have been deployed to the iran/middle east region for many decades now to reinforce the global oil cartel there are all now fighting a war against trump (et. al) and calling themselves “Iran.” The REAL Iranian people are caught in the crossfire. What we are watching is a DIRECT war between trump (et. al) and the deep state (who have been around a VERY long time). AND, the plans trump is executing have been developing for a hundred years now; he isn’t just some guy winging it.
Americans can’t see past the next election. And that is their biggest flaw.
You cannot fight a 25 century war if you are a 19 century country.
You sound like IRGC propaganda victim.
And i’ll add that while people like Jack Keane, Keith Kellogg as well as Narco Rubio, Trump and “Macho Man” Pete Hegseth say that this war will be over in a few weeks. They could in for a rude awakening. As those former CIA and military commanders have said, this war could turn into Vietnam 2.0 if US troops suffer many causalities. Iran has a much larger stockpile than the US administration gives them credit for.
The concern should be and the question needs to asked, if Israel continues to get pounded, which they are by the Iranians, will Bibi get desperate enough to launch nukes into Iran? I wouldn’t put it past him. He is one sick, twisted dude.
Given that you have to be a trained liar to join the CIA and most former CIA agents hate Trump (because they failed in trying to supplant him with the Russiagate hoax), I have very little faith in what they have to say. They are usually wrong. Also, the damage to Israel is minimal compared to Iran. Don’t believe the social media nonsense that Qatar operatives are spreading. I don’t necessarily care which side wins or loses, I’m just relating the facts – Iran is not going to win. Not by a long shot.
“Iran is not going to win. Not by a long shot.”
The Iran–Iraq War Began With the Iraqi Invasion of Iran in
September 1980 – After ‘Eight’ Years of Conflict – US/Iraq Lost.!
The US didn’t invade Iran. Also, that was 45 years ago, dummy.
“… preventing a global crisis. Trump should treat any calls for long term ground occupation with suspicion; there is no need for this kind of military commitment. The war can be decided quickly through economic means.”
.
Economic means and a solution/resolution here does not serve the greater agenda at play here of achieving Greater Chosenland Forever and the further continued destruction of America and the American people. Trump’s bosses Over There are not going to happy with any kind of rational or quick solution. This is Their big moment to shine. They don’t want anything to sideline the big climax They have long written for Planet Earth.
.
For sane people, our immediate vital concern is in the survival of this Planet Earth. But we’ve got feverish zealots and sickly souls lurking in hidden places all salivating to unleash an orgasmic hellscape of death and destruction. Their ancestors conjured books of self-prophecy about it – and they don’t want to look like fools and liars when this is all over. Others just want to be a Great Big Empire and wave around the entire Globe their Great Big Empire Appendage to show everyone how big and powerful they are. Some boys never grow up.
.
“… one of the biggest disasters that could happen for the US as a result of this war is that ideologically deranged Democrats and leftists regain enough political leverage post-midterms to disrupt any practical reforms and eventually bring back the woke nightmare…”.
.
This is almost a certainly. The Big Fake and all his Dutiful R-uniform-wearing Band of Nothings have so thorougly effed things up that even long-time Republicans and certainly the honest wing of the now-destroyed MAGA base don’t want to support these pied-pipers leading us all into hell. It will take a miracle for the R-Team to win anything right now as Middle America has seen them for the frauds they are.
.
There is only one person alone who is a big winner in all this nonsense: The Governor of California. All he has to do is sit back – try very hard not to do even more stupid things than he’s already done – and he can start calling the moving van companies to get quotes for his eventual move into the White House. Which he will rename the Black-Trans House. Weee! DEI is back! We be Woke again! Whitey be gone! Trans is in! Men in women’s bathrooms and Women in the NBA! BIg Reparations are coming! Whitey got lotsa Green! No more gas stations so no more oil needed, ever! New poisons in our food and in all the new death injections that Big Harming Pharma has waiting in the pipeline.
.
There is a reason why we don’t let children handle weapons or fireworks. And there are lots of adults today with big titles and fancy uniforms that never grew up.
.
And to say that is a concern is to put it mildly…
.
Time to save! Not to stock your food pantry but to pay the New Reparations Taxes coming.
.
And to buy some Black Paint to use on Washington DC buildings.
I’m sure the Israelis would love for Trump to commit to an occupation of Iran, but if that was the plan then I think he would have already committed tens of thousands of troops to an invasion well within the first two weeks of the air strikes. The invasion of Iraq in 2003 happened within 24 hours of air strikes. The invasion of Afghanistan happened two weeks after air strikes. Troops are stationed to be deployed, but not enough to invade all of Iran, which indicates that another plan is afoot. I continue to suspect Trump will use economic means to end the war, regardless of what Israel wants.
That Trump has not already gone full-throat into Iran by now means that either he actually doesn’t want to do that due to the harsh political consequences that his Party will surely suffer… or persons of high influence in his own military (not the faces we see in public) are fully restraining him from doing so. If course, he could still do this at any moment. The basic problem of course if that none of this benefits America or the American people. As you point out… America has little exposure to the oil over there. And Iran is no threat to America. This is strictly the latest episode of the 1998 Greater Israel Agenda and Trump trying to satisfy his overseas bosses while at the same time trying to keep the American natives from getting too restless. He fancies himself as a deal maker but what this is now is more a high-wire balancing act that I don’t think he’s used to.
I agree on that point. I think Trump truly despises Islamic authoritarians (most conservatives do), but there are much bigger fish to fry right now. I would also point out that Israel is NOT the only country that benefits from a regime change in Iran. Numerous Gulf States want the current government unseated. There are many special interests in the US (globalists and Neo-cons) that want a wider war, rather than a quick and decisive event. At bottom, if we’re going to be there at all, it will have to lead to very fast results or there will be disaster in many forms.
That’s exactly what I was thinking.
What’s the point of taking kharg when they can simply and safely intercept Iranian ships in the ocean.
I am not sure why they haven’t already done so, either Iran has threatened to retaliate hard via desalination plants in middle east, or trump is waiting for pieces to be in place before he does this which would explain why he gave Sanctions waivers and they expires soon.
Just a pertinent aside… In 1973 i was trying to get back to Nevada driving across Oregon. I ran out of gas in some small Oregon town with all the gas stations empty. So I went into a sporting goods store and bought a couple of gallons of Coleman lantern fuel (white gas) and dumped it into my ’71 Ford truck. Got me down the road far enough to find a station that had gas. Admittedly this would likely choke a new vehicle, but, the point is to think outside of the box and be prepared because this sort of thing is not fun to go through.
I don’t thing America is in danger from fuel disruptions but from financial markets crashing. AI bubble, private equity, commercial real estate, etc are weighing heavily on the markets which might cause a significant correction. I always wonder if there will be any backlash from other countries that are being effected from fuel shortages? China and Russia seem to have gained the most from this fiasco, Russia with higher oil prices and China maintaining their manufacturing base for the next decade. I always wonder if we have some type of fuel disruptions, how that will be managed, Americans haven’t had to sacrifice at all for as long as I remember and we can’t even feed ourselves on a local scale currently.
Russia gains because of oil demand, but China loses drastically if the Hormuz remains disrupted. Iran supplies 15% of their oil and 35% of their total energy passes through the Strait. China’s economy is sinking fast with massive youth unemployment and a crumbling infrastructure. Don’t believe the BS they post on social media with the LED lights and the fake robots.
I’m wondering if this has to do more with dethroning radical islamists than anything. Iran is predominately sunni which if I’m not mistaken is the root of all the atrocities committed by modern day islam. We can armchair quarterback this thing all day but in the end keep in mind that there is far more intel that we are not privy to and Trump is very strategic in every move he makes.
Trump has been talking about removing the radical Islamists from Iran since the 1980s, so yes, I agree that, for him, that is probably a big motivator.
Iran is predominantly Shia; about 90%
One thing I said prior to the election of Trump this time around, is if the economy needs to get a correction, or the US goes into some kind of conflict, that can’t happen under Biden’s successor. Trump at all costs must be the bad guy. And here we are pretty much exactly what I stated.
Not that I’m any kind of analyst, but assuming the markets are over valued, and what Brandon says (paraphrasing) – paid for by cheap money and held up with smoke and mirrors, does this Iran conflict serve multiple purposes? Is it a smoke screen for an economic problem that was going to happen anyway that just needs a good crisis? I recall in past articles about covid stimulus money and cheap money from post 2008 that it’s a matter of time something happens to the economy.
And now it’s al about AI. So much that Microsoft (I think) bought 3 mile island and not to develop houses. And all that computing power is not green at all. It’s a massive energy hog that the world has never seen prior. One more thing on the AI subject that may very well connect this Iran conflict. The resources required to run AI will come from the oil rich mid East. The power generation will be provided with the fuel they make on site. There is some sort of opportunity (pipe dream perhaps) that involves Trump and Altman to create a massive data related project called IMEC. Perhaps you can add some clarity to this?
I’m leaning towards the Iran situation NOT being the trigger for a larger event. That would require a large scale ground invasion and a long term closure of the Hormuz, which doesn’t seem to be happening. As I noted in my last article, I still think the Ukraine War is the most likely trigger for a global collapse event, with the Europeans deploying troops to the region as Russia continues to make significant gains. That said, there are numerous powder kegs around the world that could create a Black Swan. It’s difficult to predict which one is THE ONE.
Something I’ve heard as a possible such large trigger event parallels the plot of Tom Clancy’s “Sum of all Fears.” In the book/movie, a nuke (in what looked like some large storage container) is rolled into the basement of a pro football stadium in D.C. and is triggered with a stadium full of people at a super bowl. The book/movie storyline was to use the explosion to get the USA and Russia into a direct war against each other.
Anyway, my premise here is that there is ALREADY a nuke sitting in an Iranian warehouse somewhere similarly ready to go. No need to deliver it by truck or missile or airplane, it’s already there ready to go. All the bad guys need to do is pull the trigger and blame it on Israel (and or usa) and, voila, there’s your major triggering event.
Is this really a serious blunder or is is part of a bigger plan to bring down the USA?