This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group
Maybe the most prominent economic discussion circulating today is the fear that the vast majority of people have been priced out of housing markets for the rest of their lives, regardless of the country they live. Gen Z and even Gen Alpha teens are already planning for a future in which buying a home is impossible. Those that are buying are aiming for cost efficiency and they are buying alone (prioritizing savings and home ownership over marriage).
This is a subject for another article but it represents a reversal in traditional consumer behavior; a sea change that needs to be examined because it reflects greater underlying social and economic struggles.
This struggle is not only happening in the US; all across the western world from Australia to Canada to most of Europe people are facing the worst home price inflation in decades and they’re scrambling to find ways to adapt.
However, just as in physics, there are rules of motion that still apply to markets regardless of government or central bank intervention. What goes up must inevitably come down. There’s been an interesting development in the past year, specifically on the sellers side of the housing equation, and it signals big changes in the near term.
Because of the pandemic, the relocation panic, Covid stimulus and corporate buyers, prices were juiced across the board and the average cost of a home skyrocketed by 50% or more from 2019 to 2024.
A large portion of this buying involved people trying to escape draconian blue state mandates, but there were a lot of speculators trying to play the market and make a quick buck in the expectation that prices would continue rising. Instead, demand has crashed and there are limited buyers to meet the supply.
Google searches for “can’t sell my house” hit an all time high last month surpassing the peak of the crash of 2008. Housing sales have dropped by 32% from 2020 to 2026 while supply has spiked. Realtors have been warning of a massive slowdown, with many sellers refusing to read the room and cut prices as they struggle to find interested buyers.
The reason for the impasse and the frozen market is largely because of debt. In 2008, the crash was caused by easy mortgage loans to people who did not have the income to cover costs attached to ARM mortgages that ratcheted up interest rates over time. Millions of homes were sold to people that didn’t have the income to buy and they defaulted all at once, crashing the system and the derivatives tied to it.
Today, millions of homeowners are locked into ultra-low mortgage rates from previous years. Selling would mean giving up a 3% loan and replacing it with one closer to 6.5%. So they don’t sell.
Beyond that, too many owners bought at the peak of the pandemic rush and the peak of pricing. Now they are stuck trying to sell $250,000 homes for $600,000, and $500,000 homes for over a million dollars. To sell at a steep discount would be essentially the same as accruing even more debt.
The problem is, NO ONE wants to buy a house for $600,000 when they know it’s only going to be worth $250,000 in a few years. In the end, the speculators are left holding the bag and there’s only two options left – Put their excess homes on the rental market, or, cut their prices dramatically and take the loss. I believe this is going to start happening in an accelerated fashion within the next year, even if there is a government or central bank intervention.
Inflationary stimulus is not going to save the housing market this time.
This means considerable losses in home equity and the overall net worth of the population, not to mention a heavy decrease in mortgage loans and credit liquidity. Less credit access means a consumer slowdown. In the case of corporate buyers and banks, a stimulus package might protect them, but not average citizens.
Where there is no liquidity, there is a crash. For now money seems to be moving at a healthy pace, but this is largely in the stock market which is not representative of a stable economy. Stocks are not a leading indicator of crisis; they are always late to the party. By extension, stocks are not going to signal a future crash in housing, nor are they going to pick up on the throttling of buyers taking place right now.
Can this eventual plunge be managed? Yes, to a point, but not at a global level, only at a national level. And, even then it’s not going to change the ultimate outcome, which is concrete losses in liquidity and a spike in debt.
For people waiting to purchase a home this could be good news. Price cuts of 30% to 50% are possible and well overdue. That said, buyers will likely wait out the storm until they think prices have hit bottom. In the meantime there is a danger of post-crash systemic risk to stocks and credit markets. Investors will be looking for a safe haven alternative.
This brings us to a trend that’s been developing over the past couple years that we have not seem since the crash of 2008-2012. That crash coincided with a historic gold and silver surge and the same pattern is surfacing again. During narrow periods of heightened uncertainty, property might no longer represent a secure place for people to park their cash. When markets are in a panic and other hard assets are in decline, precious metals become the go-to investment.
Despite the wild fluctuations in the past couple months, gold is still up 270% since 2019 and is likely to continue climbing even as housing markets fall. The reason is simple: Consumer debt has continued to grow despite central bank interventions and increased interest rates. These measures were supposedly meant to reduce consumer borrowing, but that didn’t happen.
And, as debt grows, precious metal values invariably climb (inflation through stimulus does not need to be present, but it usually is).
US housing debt has shot up 38% since 2019. US consumer credit card debt has climbed 35% since 2019. The US national debt has climbed 71% since 2019. Property used to offer a safe haven for debt- exposed markets, but this is ending. There are very few secure places left in this environment. IF stock markets take hit (as they probably will), precious metals is one of last bastions of security.
There is definitely a correlation trend taking place which seems to echo the 2008-2012 crisis. Every time US housing prices dip or slow sharply, gold and silver prices typically rise.
As noted, it’s not just the US facing a housing market crash. Reports suggest conditions are even worse in Canada, Australia, the UK and most of Europe. In Canada, for example, leftists from the US have gone in search of alternative residency in order to “flee the Trump regime” only to come crawling back in desperation after dealing with unprecedented housing costs.
In the UK, housing for median income earners barely exists, even if they want to rent. In Australia, the median home price is around $700,000 (in the US, the median home price is $415,000). There’s really no escaping this trend unless you want to live in a third world country. And, ironically, those people are not too happy to see westerners moving into their backyards right now.
On top of the inflationary conditions for home buyers, there’s the mass invasion of illegal migrants into the west over the past decade and this has eaten up the rental markets and driven up prices further. Deportations could help alleviate some of the pressure, but this will also act as a catalyst to speed up housing depreciation. For home owners, a substantial loss of equity should be expected.
In the end the pain is necessary; something has to give. There needs to be a debt reconciliation and the economy needs to take its medicine (a deflationary event). Currently, buying has stabilized after years of decline, but we still have a long way to go before demand and supply are balanced.
It’s doubtful that central banks, built entirely on Keynesian interventionism, will allow this to occur without interference. They will eventually step in with more stimulus, which, again, means ever increasing gold and silver values. For now, the smart move for people looking to buy property (or protect their savings) is to rent until this process plays out, and perhaps invest in precious metals in the meantime as a hedge.
Homeowners should also think about investing a portion of savings into precious metals to offset losses caused by plunging property values. The status quo is ripe for an earthquake.
If you would like to support the work that Alt-Market does while also receiving content on advanced tactics for defeating the globalist agenda, subscribe to our exclusive newsletter The Wild Bunch Dispatch. Learn more about it HERE.
The U.S. government can print more dollars. It can borrow more money. But it cannot create more gold. There is only so much of it on this earth – and that’s exactly why central banks around the world are buying it at record levels. A physical Gold IRA lets you hold this finite, time-tested asset inside a tax-advantaged retirement account. Request your free info kit from Birch Gold Group and learn how simple it is to get started.
You can contact Brandon Smith at:
You can also follow me at –
TwitterX: @AltMarket1
20 Comments
This is a greatly simplified explanation leaving out lots of details, but when people go to work for money, they expect to have a dependable set of circumstances that doesn’t change the variables they have calculated for increase or just survival. But at least they already know the government is going to tax away most of what they earn. For many years housing prices went up because interest rates stayed low, so lots of people decided that the fastest way to get ahead was to start flipping houses. However, that inflated the price of housing and most did not have enough understanding of economics to see the inflation it would bring. They didn’t see the property taxes and insurance spikes that would follow, or the job market crash after that, or all of the government regulation changes either. They still don’t. They probably didn’t see Blackrock, Blackstone and other private equity giants affecting the market so dramatically as well. Quite frankly, they destroyed their own fellow man because of their love of money. Some did in fact get ahead and are sitting on housing investments that are about to bite them where it counts and they don’t see that coming either. In short, many investors are presumptuous about the future and will lose everything, while many more will simply go into poverty because they see that they can’t depend on anything being stable enough to invest time and money into, so they do little or nothing at all. The founding fathers warned us about a generation would wake up homeless on the land our founding fathers fought for after the central bankers adjust interest rates and pay off government officials for their own gain.
People will work based on false promises and false stability for awhile, but sooner or later they will realize that the current system is designed to everything from them.
Correction to last line. The current system is designed to take everything from them.
“… fear that the vast majority of people have been priced out of housing markets for the rest of their lives…”.
This is but one symptom of the much larger agenda at play to see that the vast majority of people are priced out of EVERYTHING these days. Cost of beef? Forget it. Cost of health care? Enough to make you sick. Gas and diesel? Ha! What ISN’T grossly overpriced any more. Want to go to the World Cup? Ready to take on 40-year mortgage to finance the cost of a basic ticket?
Apparently, the best way for us to be served by the Magicians who deftly manage the economy is to bankrupt us all! Make living itself impossible. All because the phony plandemic with their concocted virus didn’t do the job of offing enough of the World’s population. Where the hell is Dr. Death, the big “F”-Man himself today? New health atrocity needed ASAP! Get to work! And call your broker and go long on Undertakers.
“Something has to give.”
Something IS giving. The disappearing finances of the American People as well as any remaining hopes and dreams They may have for the future. At least that is what the Dark Powers are betting on happening in the Indispensable Nation and the World at-large.
But who says bankruptcy has to be morbid? Whatever you got left, blow it on something fun. The Dark Ones don’t want you to have any fun. So have fun anyway both to spite Them and because having fun is way more fun that being depressed about it all.
No sense saving for a rainy day once you’re already in the middle of a flood. And remember what Ed Norton once said on The Honeymooners…
“When the Tides of Life turn against you… and the current upsets your Boat… Don’t waste your tears on what might have been. Just lay on your back and FLOAT!”
Excellent article Brandon. I have no idea what the price of precious metals will be when the housing bubble pops. I would like to opine that if and when this happens, it is possible that a liquidity event may temporarily reduce that price. I will be happy to load up on PM’s if this plays out as it did during the 2008 debacle.
I saw this coming 50 years ago. Nothing is going to stop what’s coming next, and it ain’t pretty. If it makes you feel any better, there were never any off ramps. Wouldn’t be much of a trap if there were, would it? 50 years in the cattle chute and I’m eyeballin’ jumpin’ the fence before I get to the sausage grinder. You’re all free to join me!
Great article Brandon, but what about the UFOs released today by Trump? lol perhaps the aliens will come save us from all this.
“Homeowners should also think about investing a portion of savings into precious metals to offset losses caused by plunging property values.”
I don’t really think many people have any savings left at this stage. That’s going to be the interesting part when the system finally comes apart at the seams, rising living costs, income not adjusting with inflation, safety net programs overloaded or go broke (for real). Is this the great reset kicking off?
Homeowners generally have some form of equity, and even buying some metals with a loan would be better than simply doing nothing and watching their home value depreciate by half. I don’t think a house price crash by itself would trigger a “reset”. But, if central banks tried to interfere with another bailout, THAT might cause more widespread inflation and kick off a global crisis.
I live in a resort/retirement community in TN. It’s mostly Boomers moving from other states. We escaped, excuse me, moved here from NJ.
It’s not unusual for a sale of a home here that sold for $200,000 twenty years ago to get sold for $400,000 today.
Timing is everything in housing. Boomers have had wonderful timing.
The folks that buy that now $400,000 home probably think that in 20 years they’ll get $600,000. Sadly, at some point, all bubbles burst.
The situation here in central/eastern Oregon is much worse than you mentioned. In Spring of 2020 housing prices in the inter-mountain West literally doubled in a few months; in many cases prices have tripled. Much of this was due to a tsunami of people fleeing California. Another factor, as you mentioned, was all the “free” money sloshing around thanks to the banksters; people who already owned a home decided to buy a second home for speculation. Prices have not gone down significantly; in my my opinion this is due to the fact that we now have approximately 50 million forign invaders in the usa. And prices will not go down significantly until Trump keeps his campaign promise to have mass deportations. Given Trump’s track record of breaking virtually all of his campaign promises, I won’t hold my breath. I suggest people read the book “Camp of the Saints” if you want to learn how this all turns out. The book has recently been reprinted in an affodable edition and is available on Amazon. Thanks Brandon!
I would say Trump has kept around 90% of his campaign promises, but for some reason people use him as a scapegoat for everything. I think critics on our side see him like some kind of emperor that can snap his fingers if he wants and fix problems automatically. In reality he’s obstructed at every turn by leftist judges. Biden spent 4 years flooding the country with illegals and people are bitching after Trump deports for 1 year. Mass deportations are ongoing, and the illegal alien population is closer to 20 million; Not a single study shows 50 million. Let’s not exaggerate a problem that is already bad as it is. Beyond that, the housing situation is improved DRAMATICALLY from two years ago, and deportations are a part of it. Notice the rental market in particular is opening up. But, the prices on homes and rentals is going to have to fall hard to rebalance, and this is going to cause turmoil. There’s no way around it. If the central bankers try to intervene, it will cause an even bigger problem.
As a single-issue 2A voter, it’s obvious that Trump has played the @A voters for the fools he thinks we are. Trump made all kinds of 2A promises that he boasted would be implemented his first week in office. States and cities are deliberately ignoring the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling in NYSRPA v. Bruen and passing bans on semi-automatic firearms and standard capacity magazines. In response, the Supreme Court refuses to take any cases that would clarify, once and for all, what the Court said in Bruen and before that, in Heller. Trump’s dissing of the gun owners will cost him both houses in Congress during the mid-terms, and that will be the end of his so-called legacy.
You may be right about 50 million foreign invaders being an inflated number, it’s difficult to calculate and that’s by design. I can tell you that there are cities and counties in Oregon/Washington state such as Walla Walla, WA, Tri-Cities, WA, Hermiston, OR, and Madras, Or which are now all majority hispanic (or Mexican if you prefer). And believe me, those people are voting in elections (illegally) and they are overwhelmingly anti-2A. At his blogsite “War on Guns” David Codrea has been warning for a long time that mass immigration is the biggest issue for the continued health and existence of the 2A, a dire warning which, so far has mostly been ignored by all of the pro 2A organizations.
Yes, I’ve heard this propaganda before, but you’re kind of making my point for me on people acting as if Trump is some kind of emperor or magic genie there to snap his fingers and change the country as they demand. Trump’s new ATF head just removed numerous restrictions on 2A put in place for many years. Trump can’t control what blue states do, he can only control what the federal government does. He also can’t control what the Supreme Court does, as we’ve seen with the tariff issue. I can see why libertarians (and libertarian adjacents) are becoming almost as hated as leftists by the general patriot movement. They cry “treason” over every little pet issue when things are not immediately fixed to their liking, ignoring the fact that even making the attempt at reform takes time. You would have to be a complete retard to allow communist Democrats back into power on the premise that this will help the 2A. It’s not Trump’s job to protect the 2A, it’s YOUR job.
——————————————————————
As far as the illegal immigrant numbers go, again, every study shows around 20 million, some show around 25 million on the high end. Your rhetorical stories and theories are not evidence of anything. Over 20 million illegals is already bad, exaggerating only makes the pro-borders crowd look ridiculous.
Not sure I agree with 90% but a large percentage for sure. You have correctly highlighted that current Admin is constrained by legislature and judicial bodies at almost every level. I would – however – like to see more prominent reporting on deportations (numbers each month, etc.) being distributed via all media channels. Yes, it’s out there but it gets buried. As you noted, 20-25 million people being deported takes time (and money).
Something Yogi Berra might say if he were alive today. “Nobody can afford houses, buyers are paying too much for them.”
Agree with the article, but wonder about what happens with property tax.
Have you ever heard of a property tax valuation going down?
Either the valuations have to come down closer to actual value, or at some point a change will be forced by something and the property market will be adversely affected. Either way it does not go back to Normal anytime soon.
One problem at a time, my friend…
Check. Florida is already starting this ball rolling. This will take time but I do see them eventually coming down. The short/interim issue will be the local government desperation to keep the scam going and raising them even further. We’ve already seen some of that….more incoming.
My sister and her family are also looking for a house so they can move out of their apartment. So far, they haven’t been successful. They did have a trailer house across the street from us that were planning on fixing up and moving into, but they’ve decided to give it to their oldest daughter and her boyfriend since neither can afford to rent an apartment around here. Both of them are barely a year out of high school.
The market is improving depending on the region, but still not great. I think things will look dramatically different in a little over a year.