By Brandon Smith
Before I begin this analysis of the situation in the Middle East and its consequences, I want to warn people that this examination is going to be largely secular and nuanced; which means people on both sides of the divide are going to piss and moan about it. Frankly, I don’t care.
To be clear, I’m not interested in the “plight” of the Palestinians, the Islamic regime in Iran or the conspiracy theories of “groypers.” I find appeals of empathy and compassion for Islamic societies to be naive – They are perfectly indifferent and hostile to the west, they always have been. They have also formed political alliances with far-left organizations in the US and Europe with the intent to burn the west to the ground. I do not waste my time worrying about them.
In fairness, I also don’t care about the Israeli government and I have no vested interest in whether or not they survive. In the past, Israeli supported organizations have helped in the formation of militant leftist groups and anti-conservative sentiments in the US. The fact that leftist activists have turned on Israel in recent years is rather poetic.
I recognize many Christians would disagree with this position in the belief that Israel is the only western ally keeping watch over the Holy Land. I argue that it should be western Christians (not Israelis) in charge of the region, given it was ours (through the Holy Roman Empire) for centuries, until the Muslim hordes invaded.
I’m also aware that there are numerous disinformation agents online who are paid by both sides. Israel as well as Islamic governments run these digital operations constantly. They expend vast amounts of money to employ armies of social media shills. Their singular job is to disrupt sincere discussion and sway American opinion to support one side or the other.
This tells me a lot about how important the US population is to the geopolitical future of the world. Everyone wants us to pick their team or hate their opponent.
What I care about first and foremost is how geopolitical events and our involvement will affect America and American interests. What I have learned in recent years, though, is that it’s easy enough to predict events but not necessarily outcomes. There are people out there that think every international conflict or crisis is going to end in global doom.
None of them have so far. Of course, all it takes is the right crisis to trigger a Black Swan. This is where I think many of us in the alternative media build lighthouses, warding ships away from the rocky shores of any incident that might become a world-ending singularity.
It’s important to understand that dramatic geopolitical shifts have the potential to act as “linchpins”, impacting our lives through a chain of dominoes that is not immediately apparent until years later. Potential does not mean certainty. As I’ve been pointing out for many years now – collapse is a process, not an event.
In spring of 2024 in my article “Iran vs Israel: What Happens Next Now That Shots Have Been Fired?” I predicted the development of an unavoidable war footing between Iran and the US (with Israel as instigator or convenient rationale) and I argued that this would escalate in the spring of 2025. I was one year off.
In that article I predicted initial air strikes of primary targets. I predicted Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz (which has now happened). I predicted a ground invasion into Lebanon by Israel (which has not happened yet), followed by the eventual ground invasion by US and Israeli forces into Iran.
Immediate consequences could include a spike in oil and gas prices (over 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz). Then there’s elevated possibility of planned and autonomous terror attacks (the recent mass shooting in Austin, TX appears to be the first). There’s the danger of a potential military draft should the war carry on for more than a couple years or if it turns into an occupation dealing with a large insurgency.
Finally, there is the growing chance of increasing hostility with Russia and China leading to an eventual catalyst that causes world war. This is a worst-case scenario viewpoint of the conflict, and not necessarily the most likely outcome.
For example, in Venezuela, black pillers wailed and raged over Donald Trump’s black-bag operation that resulted in the capture of illegitimate dictator Nicolas Maduro. They claimed with certainty that this action would initiate Vietnam Part II. They were entirely wrong.
Millions of Venezuelans around the world rejoiced and the Venezuelan population has done nothing in the name of bringing Maduro back. Trump’s critics ignored the applause from Venezuelan nationals and argued that their opinions don’t matter.
Why? Because their support of Trump’s invasion is inconvenient to the narrative that he’s a “mindless warmonger” and that he is “betraying his voter base.” This is a childish response to complex geopolitical dynamics.
Many dictatorships deserve to die. The libertarian methodology of sitting around and doing nothing while bitching about the people who take action is growing stale. The American public is not inspired by passivity. This does not mean we should go to war with Iran, per se, but I think US patriots are done with ego-stroking debates on constitutional and ideological theory. They want to see results.
If moral justification is the issue, then there is a fair case to be made for the decapitation of the Islamic regime in Iran. The Iranian government engages in the same brutal theocratic oppression we have seen with the Taliban in Afghanistan, but on an industrial scale. If you are a woman, a political dissident or a religious minority in Iran, you have no rights and can be arrested or murdered for any reason at any given moment.
Just because Muslims happen to agree with conservatives that transgender activists are predatory lunatics does not mean we have anything else in common.
Most critics will argue that regime change in Iran is only meant to benefit Israel and not the Iranian people. It actually benefits MANY countries, not just Israel. I would also argue that Trump’s REAL goal is probably to further isolate China from its international oil sources, while Israel is a secondary concern (or a useful excuse).
Trump’s decapitation strategy against Venezuela, his policies on the Panama Canal and his Iran strikes conveniently cut China off from around 20% of its oil resources. This is significant and could change China’s military development efforts dramatically. That said, just because Trump was right on Venezuela does not mean he will be right on Iran.
The US is very good at taking out enemy leadership and blowing stuff up. We are completely inept when it comes to occupation and this is where we always lose. Occupation requires majority support of the foreign population. Without it, there is no point.
In Iran, Trump MIGHT have it. We have to wait and see what the Iranian population does in reaction to the decapitation strikes. If too large a percentage of the populace throws support behind the Islamists, then the limited strikes will have to evolve into a ground war, and a ground war without domestic alliances would turn into a quagmire.
Then there’s the question of the Strait of Hormuz. Clearing the strait and keeping it operational will be difficult. Iran can run interference on oil shipping for months merely by targeting tankers with thousand of drones. I don’t have to explain what one Shahed drone can do to a ship loaded with combustible oil.
If it was my operation, I would target the strait with long range artillery supported by drone spotters. Iran’s artillery can strike accurately out to 300 miles and is almost impossible to counter. All it takes is one large sunken ship to close the Hormuz for weeks. This is a problem IF Trump’s strikes on top officials do not inspire a popular revolution.
The Hormuz closure will mean higher gas prices (though, I suspect part of Trump’s strategy is to use Venezuelan oil exports to offset the Hormuz bottleneck). If Trump can’t keep prices relatively low, then the American public will be very unhappy. We already spent four years suffering under Biden’s inflation. We can’t absorb any more.
Russian and Chinese involvement in the region appears to be limited to weapon sales and logistics. Russia does have a Strategic Partnership Treaty with Iran, but it does not contain a mutual defense clause. I worry far more that elitists in Europe are doing everything in their power to start a world war with Russia by interfering in Ukraine.
Speaking of the OTHER conflict in the east, it’s interesting to me that, under the Biden Administration, Democrats avidly and rabidly demanded direct confrontation with Russia over Ukraine. Like Iran, it’s just another country that has little to do with us, yet they were happy to risk nuclear conflagration over that foreign entanglement. This is why I don’t take leftists seriously at all when it comes to their anti-war rhetoric.
As far as Israel is concerned, yeah, they make off like bandits in this situation. They know they do. I’m sure they are secretly proud of that fact. They would never be able to fight this war alone. But I’m not going to cry over the destruction of a Muslim theocracy just because Israel gains something from it.
The issue is America, and whether or not this war will escalate out of control and turn into a global crisis that harms us. I will admit that Trump has displayed a knack for executing limited military operations with far-reaching effects at limited cost. He has proven the blackpillers wrong on several occasions.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth asserts that there will be no quagmire. If this is possible to pull off, then it will be the Trump Administration’s greatest magic trick yet.
If it’s not possible, then the outcome will be chaos and civil breakdown in Iran followed by balkanization, tribal warfare and widespread insurgency far outside the boundaries of the country. Trying to clean up the mess would likely result in the same kind of failed occupation the US experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It’s a gamble that risks a sharp division within the conservative base. It also risks the extremist left coming back into power. Any major disaster on Trump’s watch could serve the interests of globalists seeking to exploit a crisis to further demonize the concepts of nationalism and conservatism.
At that point, the only solution would have to be a total and unrelenting crusade, with or without the Trump Admin.
If we want to protect our children and the future in general, the leftist cult can never be allowed to take power again. Third world migrants cannot be allowed to stay in the US. And, globalists can’t be allowed to remain as social engineers influencing world events.
There are many people who oppose the elites who also see a substantial failure by Trump as an opportunity to “kick off the boogaloo.” They see chaos as a chance to finally put the greater underlying war against the globalists and multiculturalists to rest. I’m not sure I disagree. What I do know is that this would cost a considerable number of innocent lives, but maybe it can’t be avoided.
The success or failure of the Trump Presidency changes little in terms of our ultimate responsibility to ensure that the globalists face justice.
For now, I am erring on the side of an Iranian government collapse and a win for Trump after a couple months of limited strikes and covert ops. In the meantime I expect a wave of attempted terror attacks, even more NGO paid riots by leftists activists and probably an emergency effort by DHS to deport most Muslim immigrants from the country. The cynics say “nothing ever happens”, except when something happens. Keep your head on a swivel.
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1 Comment
I really appreciate your talent to express your opinions is such a clear fashion. Thank you.
You and I are of a like mind on this issue in every aspect you wrote about. I did not think in wise to attack Iran based on the condition of our armed forces, logistical issues, lack of a manufacturing base to quickly resupply and the Incessant lobbying from Israel. But then, when is it a good time?