By Brandon Smith
The eyes of the world have been fixated on the war in Iran for the past six months, meanwhile, the single-most dangerous flashpoint on the planet has gone mostly ignored. Until, that is, waves of Ukrainian drone strikes activated a run on global diesel markets. Suddenly, everyone is paying attention again…
Russia is the second largest diesel exporter in the world next to the United States, supplying around 12% of total global exports (the US supplies 22% of exports). To put this in perspective, only 10% of global diesel exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz under normal conditions – And that supply is coming from seven different oil producing nations including Iran.
After western sanctions, Russian diesel shipments have gone primarily to Turkey, Brazil, India and China. However, because Russian supplies continued to circulate on global markets, these countries did not have to draw fuel from alternative sources.
Conditions have now changed, and not for the better. Constant Ukrainianian drone strikes on Russian refineries have forced the Kremlin to stop all diesel exports and retain their existing supply for the population and the war effort.
If you want to know why diesel prices have been hit hard since July, Russian export cuts are the reason. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has steadily climbed since July according to independent satellite tracking confirmation (anyone using AIS transponder data alone will have a low and inaccurate count). It’s the Russian refinery issue that has inflated diesel prices in recent months.
With Russian sources completely cut off, multiple nations will have to draw from other producers. Meaning, the pie is shrinking, but everyone still wants the same size slice they’ve always had. If the US also stops diesel exports in response, it would be a disaster for foreign markets and result in true supply shortages (Europe would be hard hit; half of their diesel imports come from the US).
In 2024 I questioned why the Ukrainians kept going after odd targets such as nuclear early warning radar stations rather than key resources like oil refineries in order to stop Russia’s attrition strategy. Well, it looks like the Ukrainians finally figured it out.
Russia’s attrition strategy has been highly effective in grinding down Ukraine’s troop strength (to the point that they were recruiting mostly men over 40), but the key flaw of a slow moving front line and a protracted offensive is that it requires a large stockpile of resources. Ukraine’s drone attacks have a low success rate, but if they send a thousand UAVs to attack a refinery and a couple get through, then that’s still a win in the long run because it drags down Russia’s lumbering attrition-based operation.
The Trump Administration has asked Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries due to the instability to global markets, but Zelensky has ignored the request. It’s not surprising; they’ve finally found a tactic that works.
Of course, now the rest of the world is being affected by diesel supply shortages when this was not the case a year ago. One would think the Europeans, who have been particularly throttled by price hikes on fuel and energy, would be in a rush to end the war. And maybe they are about to intervene, but not in the way we might hope…
I think it’s fair to say that the Ukraine war would have ended a long time ago had it not been for the interference of European governments propping up Ukraine and encouraging them to NOT make a deal. Ultimately, Russia is going to keep the Donbas region whether Ukraine likes it or not. But Zelensky refuses to accept this outcome, so, the war rages on much longer than it needs to.
The situation gets much more dangerous, though,with the push by European elites to put boots on the ground. They seem to want to start a world war. Beyond the diesel resource problem which puts a timetable on the war for both sides, European governments have increased troop movements to eastern borders and it’s starting to look like they’re getting ready for something big.
Poland has been building extensive trenches and fortifications using German combat engineers on the border of Belarus. Germany has established a 5000-man armored brigade in Lithuania, the first time the Germans have stationed permanent combat troops abroad since 1945. NATO has launched a 9th multinational battle group with regular exercises in Finland near the Russian border. Multiple nations are sending rotating brigades to Latvia, Romania and Estonia. Even the Canadians are sending troops.
Recent weeks have seen repeated Polish and Baltic fighter activations due to alleged drone or aircraft activity near alliance airspace. Allies are pre-positioning equipment and planning much larger stockpiles of ammunition and resources in frontline states. NATO has also published extensive contingency planning for the eastern flank.
There has been a surge in political and civil-preparedness messaging for civilians. Polish warnings about possible disguised drone/missile incidents. French measures to protect critical infrastructure after hybrid-attack briefings. German military-hospital capacity planning. Lithuanian plans for evacuation routes. UK public preparedness bulletins including recommendations for civilians to stock up on food and supplies..
Even Switzerland has been posting security and preparedness messages for citizens, indicating a “deteriorating security situation” in relation to the military build up.
All of this could be viewed as a defensive posture and not necessarily planning for direct engagement with the Russians; but consider for a moment that Russia has not once threatened to attack European or NATO targets and has consistently said that their only interest is Ukraine. Yet, Europe has removed their “trip wire” defense strategy and replaced it with a permanent front. It sure does seem like they are getting ready for an event which might provoke the Russians to strike targets outside of Ukraine.
What would that event be?
To be clear, I’m not a big fan of the Russian government. Evidence suggests that they engage in regular psy-ops in the US and there are far too many conservative influencers who kiss Putin’s ass. That said, I’m not a fan of Ukraine or the Europeans either, and I suspect the EU elites would LOVE to trigger a world war if they thought they could get away with it.
Why? Well, here’s my theory…
Europe has been the primary target of a decade long cultural replacement operation. Mass immigration has been utilized to undermine the stability of economic and social structures. For years I have been warning that these third world migrants are being imported as a mercenary army to control the locals and prevent rebellion against future leftist agendas.
We are already seeing confirmation of this in the UK, where migrants are being integrated into police forces to subdue conservative protesters.
The thing is, this invasion plan has sparked an enormous counter-movement of European patriots in countries like Britain and Germany. Anti-immigration and conservative parties like Restore in the UK and the AFD in Germany are seeing wild success in membership and elections. Meaning, time for leftists/globalists is running out and they need to do something quick before they lose direct governmental power.
A world war sure would come in handy, right? All kinds of restrictions on the populace can be put in place, along with a perfect excuse to delay or eliminate normal elections. Would the progressives actually go that far just to prevent conservatives from taking government? We all know that they would.
So, we have two running clocks that did not exist at the beginning of the Ukraine war: We have a diesel shortage clock, specifically for the Europeans. And, we have an avalanche of conservative movements with major elections happening from 2026 through 2029.
My concern is that the leftists are about to go for broke in an effort to keep power. I don’t think they’re crazy enough to want a nuclear war, and perhaps the Russians want to avoid this as well. If that’s the case, then the result would be a large multi-region conflict that MIGHT turn nuclear if either side feels like they are losing. The main goal of the EU elites at that stage would be to lure the US into the fray.
In any case the aftershocks would be disastrous. Let’s hope that conservative and populist movements in Europe can pull the rug out from under their far-left governments before the situation on the eastern front escalates any further.
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10 Comments
“The situation gets much more dangerous, though, with the push by European elites to put boots on the ground. They seem to want to start a world war.”
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These are all failed governments mostly under the thumb (or Orwellian boot?) of the disastrous European Dis-Functional-Union. Governments throughout history always turn to war as a last-ditch effort to keep their badly failing leadership and structures in power. They have nothing left to try. They got NOTHIN’. War is always the choice of those failed cowardice who have shown to all their utter lack of true and useful leadership ability.
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“… Russia has not once threatened to attack European or NATO targets and has consistently said that their only interest is Ukraine.”
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Russia just wants to be left the hell alone. It’s the Western and Euro Neocon-Cons who need to posture Russia into a great big threat to have something to rage against and waste tons of taxpayer money to throw at the unholy altar of the morbidly fat Military Cabal. So they conjure-up a big boogie-man and demonize it to create some kind of big enemy and World threat. Again, the last resort of failed leadership with vacant of good purpose. And if the Con-Cons weren’t using Russia as Their foil, They would just choose another.
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“My concern is that the leftists are about to go for broke in an effort to keep power.”
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Leftists in The Indispensable Nation are going to play upon the justified rage of Americans against two unpopular soul-sucking wars and ridiculous costs of living to gain support in the upcoming elections. Of course, that is just swapping out one really bad bunch of leaders for another. But then again, Indispensable Land has been doing that already for generations. But hey, we get a choice, right? At least that’s what both of these failed sides calls it.
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There is a really bad mix of ingredients going into the bowl right now that will create a dangerous, really bad tasting cake of World events. You put bad ingredients into the cake mix and you get a cake that taste’s horrible. That’s what They are doing.
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What the hell? Throw a little diesel into the bowl as well. It might even improve the taste of the cake They want to bake.
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And you can be sure. You won’t want another piece.
When the economy fails, they always go to war to cover in up and to decrease the number of mouths to feed.
IMO; piss on europe. they have been voting left for generations.
Globalists are not leftists. They are the PMCs, the oligarchs and the plutocrats. Globalists have never had a callous or a worry about their lights being cut off. Real leftists are localists.
Neither have most leftists, you dunce. Most of them are nepo babies with trust funds and parents paying for their college, like Hasan Piker. They’ve never struggled a day in their lives. Leftists and globalists are EXACTLY the same, with the exact same ideology, rhetoric, talking points and goals. Guess who funds the NGOs that fund most leftist organizations and activist groups? Yep, you’ll find Soros, Rockefeller and Ford Foundation behind every one of them. So don’t feed us this crap about the working class and the have-nots, because the left wing has not represented those people in over a century. All leftists support ultimate centralization; they don’t know the meaning of the term “localism”.
Brandon, excellent article. I am 💯 with “leftists are about to go for broke” and start a pan-European war. Trouble is that Russia will flatten Europe. My hunch is that the purpose of slow walking of the battle front in Ukraine is minimally for attrition on Ukraine manpower but more for sheer time of military production of Russian weapons for which there exists *no* western deterrent. Read that again: NO deterrent. Russia is producing these 24×7 now for, gee whiz, four years now? T-90 tanks fitted with on board pro-active anto-drone systems being built 24×7. Jet powered drones that carry 200lbs of high explosives that can level any gas station or local NATO drone operations center… being built 24×7. And let’s not dare whisper the name “oreshnik” which Putin mentioned can reach every Europen capital within 11-15 minutes from launch. With only inert metal rods as 6 multiple warheads it re-enters at hypersonic speed with a 9000F leading shock wave that melts everything in a 2 mile radius… missiles and launchers being built 24×7 since 2025.
Liberal power maniacs in the West are going to provoke the bear with false flags, start a war in which their butts will be beaten and the civil populations left to survive in a post-Desden hellscape.
Just my 2 cents.
“The main goal of the EU elites at that stage would be to lure the US into the fray.”
I have always felt that the US will try to stay out of any upcoming global wars but I fear another false flag will table that. Any ideas on what they might try as a modern day Pearl Harbor or 9/11? I remember the talk about selective service applying to women and then selective service being auto reg for youth turning 18 not too long ago but that was just a blip on the radar and we haven’t heard anything about it since. Almost like they know they will not meet recruitment quotas for something big coming down the pike.
Much of what passes for current events in the world makes a whole lotta sense if passed through the lens of world wide depopulation. Say 500 million or so.
If done correctly without wiping it out for the 500 million, there has to be quite a lot still working after the deed is done. It needs to be done rather carefully, no ?
Humans are nothing more than smarter apes. If you study chimps, you see we act just like them. Sex, power, territory, resources. Violence is inevitable. It always is. It always has been.
A bit off- topic, but important to Europeans.
https://www.save-europe-act.com. Please sign.
I believe Brandon does not object.