By Brandon Smith
In March I published an article titled “Global Energy Crisis Or Iranian Surrender In Five Weeks?” in which I outlined the “worst case” and “best case” scenarios for the war in Iran. In my best case scenario I argued in favor of a specific plan to end the conflict quickly: A US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, flipping the tables on Iran by blocking or seizing any oil tankers or gas tankers which exit Iranian ports.
Two weeks later, the Trump Administration has implemented this exact strategy.
The effectiveness of the blockade is already apparent; the propaganda bots on social media are scrambling to find a narrative to counter it, but they are failing. Why? Because Iran already tried to lock down the strait (which is an international waterway), and any government cheering (or secretly cheering) for Iran’s actions is now unable to make a rational argument against the US doing the same thing to Iran. As I noted in March:
“We constantly hear about international exposure to the Hormuz shutdown, but the media rarely mentions that Iran is the MOST exposed economy of all. For now, Iranian oil ships continue to pass through the strait and these vessels are Iran’s economic lifeline. Strategic estimates suggest that without the steady passage of these oil tankers, the Iranian economy would completely collapse within five weeks…”
I then summarized what I believed was the simplest solution to end the war:
“Iranian cargo ships can be targeted for seizure by a US blockade of the Persian Gulf well away from the narrow waters of the Hormuz. The ships could be destroyed, but I suspect the Department of Defense will try to avoid oil spills and ecological disasters. Instead, the best option is to capture Iran’s tankers and then redirect the oil to countries in danger of shortages.
Iran has the option of shutting off GPS tracking for their vessels (shadow fleet), but this would not help them maneuver past a comprehensive US blockade. In other words, I argue that the US could turn the tables on Iran and use their reliance on the Hormuz against them.
With Iran’s economy in shambles, they will no longer be able to purchase missiles or drones for resupply from Russia and China. They won’t be able to pay for logistic resources for their military and they won’t be able to contain public unrest. The Iranians would be forced to negotiate and the war would be over quickly with minimal risk to US troops.”
For now, the US is not seizing Iran’s tankers and is merely sending them back to where they came from. However, it would seem that the Trump Administration and their military advisers have come to the same basic conclusions I did.
For years I have expressed my concerns about a potential conflict in Iran, largely because of the precarious global economic risks associated with mass energy shortages caused by a closure of the Hormuz, which transits around 25% of the world’s energy exports. That said, I do not care about “picking sides” when it comes to Israel or Iran.
This debate is irrelevant and designed, I think, to divide US conservatives over ancient tribal vendettas that do not involve us. I don’t care about the Israeli government or “Zionism” and I certainly don’t care what happens to the theocratic and tyrannical Muslim regime in Iran. We have much more important things to think about.
What matters to me is how the US and the American people are affected by geopolitical events. There has been endless debate on what the war is really about, whether it be Iranian nukes, Israeli schemes, Saudi schemes, control of global oil markets, etc. (I think every action the Trump Administration has take so far from Venezuela to Iran has largely been designed to contain China). In any case, a long term closure of the Hormuz will eventually result in market cascades and a stagflationary crisis.
What matters now is ending the war as quickly and decisively as possible without leaving the Homuz and 25% of global energy exports under Iran’s control. After that, people can wrestle over the “moral and constitutional” quandary to their heart’s content.
First, I think it’s vitally important to address some lies and disinformation being spread by propagandists and foreign agents online about the US blockade, so let’s quickly go down the list…
Lie #1: The US Is Blocking All Ships Traveling Through The Strait
This is false. The US is only blocking ships coming from Iranian ports. All other ships have been allowed to pass without incident. This lie is being spread by disinfo agents all over social media and it is also being spread by foreign governments from the UK to France to China. This, to me, says A LOT about the true agenda of these countries, given that they said little or nothing about Iran locking down the strait.
Lie #2: Chinese Vessels Have Broken The Blockade And The US Is Afraid
Nope. All Chinese vessels coming from Iranian ports have been turned away and any vessels coming from alternative ports have been allowed to pass. At the time this article is being published, only one ship from an Iranian port has allegedly slipped through the blockade, though the story on this ship might be fabricated. All other Iranian ships have been repelled.
Lie #3: The Blockade Puts US Naval Ships At Serious Risk
No, it does the opposite. US ships have no need to traverse the narrow Hormuz to blockade it. All they have to do is wait outside of it and turn back Iranian tankers that approach. No mines, no missiles, no drones, no tiny attack boats, nothing Iran has the ability to deploy has much of a chance of harming the US Navy. In fact, reports indicate ships like the USS Abraham Lincoln (an aircraft carrier) have already been targeted hundreds of times by Iran with no damage taken.
There is nothing Iran can do about a comprehensive blockade.
Lie #4: Iran Is Used To Sanctions And Can Hold Out Longer Than The US
No, they can’t. Only 7% of energy exports going to the US travel through the Hormuz. Iran’s entire economy hangs by a thin thread and that thread is oil exports to countries like China or Vietnam.
Iran is reportedly losing around $430 million each day that their ships remain stuck in the strait, and they have already taken around $270 billion in infrastructure damages. Iran pays for new weapons and military logistics with oil revenues. Their soldiers are paid in part with oil revenues. They mitigate civil unrest with oil revenues.
I suspect that the blockade will force Iran back into negotiations within a couple weeks. That’s how little time they have left.
Lie #5: Iran Has Alternative Ways To Bypass The Blockade
No, they don’t. Overland routes without ample pipelines are no substitute for the ease of oil tanker shipments. Even if they did have such pipelines, those lines could be easily destroyed.
By extension, as Iran’s oil exports stack up they will quickly run out of storage space, which means they will have to shut down drilling. This would cause significant damage to their oil infrastructure within weeks due to pressure differentials.
Recent news indicates that Iran has already halted all petrochemical exports until further notice. If true, this proves that the blockade is highly effective.
Lie #6: The Chinese Will Intervene And Force The Strait To Reopen
As noted, the strait is not closed. Only Iranian ports are closed. Furthermore, China has stayed away from direct intervention in the Hormuz because they simply don’t have the naval capacity to square off with the US even if they wanted to.
Keep in mind, only a week ago the Chinese government vetoed a UN resolution to reopen the strait when they thought Iran was going to control it. The CCP is impotent and they can do nothing.
Lie #7: The US Is Losing All Its Allies Over The Blockade
Wrong. What the blockade (and the war in general) is doing is exposing the countries which were pretending to be our allies when it was convenient. I examined this problem in my last article “The US Separation From Europe And NATO Is Long Overdue”, and this brings me to my final point on the war.
The fact that the European elites are suddenly so concerned with the US blockade, enough to call for a “coalition” to reopen the strait and “circumvent” the US, tells us all we need to know. I continue to believe that the globalists in these nations have been feeding off the US while at the same time organizing a “multicultural alliance” behind the scenes – A socialist new world order to supplant western civilization and leave the US behind as a husk.
Part of this agenda clearly involves a partnership with Islamic fundamentalists as a goon squad to oppress native western populations. This is why the elites have flooded Europe with third world migrants – Ignoring the concerns of citizens and even arresting people who speak out.
This is also why the Pope is so adamant to call for a Muslim/Christian pact (while he blatantly ignores the fact that Europeans have been terrorized by Muslim immigrants for over a decade). Let’s not forget that during the pandemic lockdowns, the Vatican joined with the globalists to form the Council for Inclusive Capitalism (run by Lynn Forester de Rothschild). Modern-era Popes are not friends to conservatives or Christians, but I plan to go into that problem in my next article.
The blockade, I believe, is so effective that it has struck fear in Iran, fear in China, and fear in the liberal order in Europe which was counting on the war to drag on for months or years. Look at how angry they all are that Trump flipped the script on the Hormuz? Why all the emotion and irrational hand wringing after the strait has been opened to MORE ships and oil traffic? Why all the panic when oil prices are falling? It doesn’t make sense unless they WANT the US to fail.
Regardless of how you might feel personally about the Iran war, it is undeniable that the situation has revealed many of our supposed allies as enemies. In reality, they were always enemies. The only thing that has changed is that the truth is finally out in the open.
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26 Comments
Allah akbar!
The Moon God is greater than………………. greater than……….
Huh?!
These infidels will not succeed!!
Ummm, you just wait and see!
Uh huh, yeah
Would your position be that what we’re seeing in Iran is not part of a globalist agenda as it were? Or to put it another way, that elites want an energy crisis but are failing in their attempts? I think back to your previous articles where you referenced The Atlantic Council pushing for a conflict with Iran. Does the current state of play in Iran not support that agenda?
No, it doesn’t. The Atlantic Council wanted regime change and occupation. That would require a massive ground invasion. A long term energy crisis would require the destruction of numerous ports outside Iran. For now, Trump has not staged ANY forces large enough for a ground invasion, nor does he need to. Iran can be crushed within weeks simply by shutting down their oil exports. I think some people were FAR too quick to jump to conclusions about US involvement in the war, as if this was the beginning of Armageddon. Given the evidence, it’s simply not. I don’t see any indication of escalation that would cause a long term energy crisis. This could change, of course, but for now it looks like the war will be over quickly. Iran cannot survive a blockade for longer than two months (probably less). The most dangerous geopolitical situation in the world right now is still Ukraine and Europe’s constant efforts to start a war with Russia. Iran does not seem to be the Black Swan we have been waiting for.
I tip my cap to you, sir, particularly your unique assertions in Lie #7. You opened my mind to the possibility that the CCP is behind Europe’s provocation of Russia. Xi, et al would love to end up having all that oil next door in Russia.
Brandon-
Nice article. It will be interesting to see if Iran folds under the economic pressure you outline. European elites, China and US Liberals are probably hoping Iran drags this on long enough to cause US inflation, economic distress and a continued drop in Trumps poll numbers. Weak kneed Republicans will turn on him by late May if oil prices linger above $100. Iran may capitulate or Trump allows for a watered down deal. The dislike for Trump by the liberal coalition (Euro, Canada and US elites) is intense – he is the only thing standing in the way of their socialist agenda. If he can muscle through – he will have created a new world order (err Oil Order) neutering China and realigning the Middle East. However, Israel may have other plans – he needs to keep them in check.
For decades now, powerful financial movers and shakers, have derived their wealth from setting financial policies and then gaming those. They have wrung that methodology dry. These folks are now reduced to influencing the markets by introducing chaos by way of propagandized narratives and prepositioning themselves to benefit. This approach best satisfies the goals and purposes of their former masters who have now departed this plane. Ignore the propaganda. Quit sensationalizing it. Get on with your own life.
You are preaching to the choir here, I think. But not all events revolve around the machinations of one all-powerful, all-knowing group, and to assume this is extraordinarily foolish. There are forces of good in this world, and opposing interests that also affect events. I always find it bewildering the level of genius some people assign to our would-be dictators when the reality is, they have spent over a century trying to secure a global socialist new world order and they continue to fail. They are not omnipotent nor are they as smart as you think they are. Definitely do NOT ignore the intricacies of events or dismiss them as “distraction” thinking you are “above it all”, or you will be able to do nothing to prepare for them or disrupt them. The more you diminish their importance, the more you set yourself up for slavery.
Excellent article, and scrolling up to see who wrote it… Mr. Brandon Smith. Ah, no surprise then. Well done, Mr. Smith. A voice of wisdom and understanding.
Comprehensive and accurate assessment . Well done Mr. Smith!
Interesting stuff. One small caveat: via the Caspian Sea Iran has maritime trade with Kazakhstan and Russia, although oil capacity is very limited. Historically, Russian has swapped its oil exports to Iran via the Caspian for Iranian oil in Persian Gulf ports to arb the price differential. However, the flow could be reversed. (Israel/the US has hit one port on the Caspian.) This doesn’t invalidate your theses but deserves mention.
Also, Iran’s land borders with Pakistan, Turkey, Iraq, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia are long and porous. For many years, there has been a very lucrative black-market trade to circumvent sanctions, particularly with Pakistan and Turkey.
None of those routes would allow for Iran to trade most of their oil effectively, especially when it comes to their primary customer: China. China buys 90% of all Iranian petro products, and the Hormuz is the only way to get it to them. I give them two weeks, maybe three, before they start calling for a return to negotiations. Notice that you don’t see Russia and China rushing to their aid? It’s because those governments know the situation cannot be helped.
Interesting article Mr. Smith, thanks. The blockade is checkmate for Iran, and check for China. All that’s left to do is to wait for Iran to tip over their king.
In your next article it would be interesting to see the conflict in the world today between Islamic and Christian countries.
Comparison on how Judaism/Christian based countries treat Islamic immigrants against Islamic countries treatment of Christians.
Thank you for your insight into the Iran debacle…..much appreciated.
Silly article. You are confusing tactics with strategy in relation to a blockade.
Yes, tactically the blockade makes sense: don’t allow Iran to export, they run out of money, they capitulate. And all this is two weeks … why the heck didn’t we think of this before?
The problem is that strategically these tactics are nonsense. This is an EXISTENTIAL war for Iran … do we understand what that means? It means they are willing to go through hell and high water to get to the end of the road. I bet you they have far more reserve $$$ than two weeks … or two months for that matter. And they can always borrow from sugar China.
At the same time, this is NOT an existential war for the USA … it was an idiotic war of choice. Therefore, the level of pain that OUR people and politicians are willing to endure is minuscule in comparison. We will fold like a wet napkin, though Trump will call it victory.
As a last note: the Houthis were bombed for years by us and the Saudis and they had no trade to speak of … they outlasted the attackers because they were more desperate. It’s the same case here.
Iran just folded and I was completely and utterly correct, as usual. They are opening the strait to shipping and they are submitting to the US blockade. Oil prices are now plunging. You see, your clear bias in favor of the Muslims and their absurd religion has blinded you to their impotence. ALL wars require money, and they cannot pay for their military operations without steady oil revenues. This is an undeniable fact and no amount of imaginary cash reserves hidden in your Iran fantasies will change it. If you had studied this information beyond your own armchair, you would have seen how obvious the conclusion of this situation would be. Now you look like an idiot.
The leftists, globalists, and the blackpillers are all collectively losing their damn minds over how effective Trump is. LOL It’s beautiful and absolutely hilarious to see how hard they are trying to cope on twitter. Spot on as always Brandon. Fantastic article.
Now I really do hope Trump scraps us out of NATO de-facto or altogether. Hilarious how the weak beta European elites are all trembling. Hopefully that would get the poison still brewing AFTER 4 YEARS scrapped for good.
“I don’t care about the Israeli government or ‘Zionism’ and I certainly don’t care what happens to the theocratic and tyrannical Muslim regime in Iran. We have much more important things to think about.”
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This is most certainly true. But you’d never know that when you have the misfortune of listening to The Indispensable Nation’s State Corporate Media. They want you distracted by World nonsense so as not to feel even more pain from your financial depletion and feel MORE pain from Their soul-crushing psychological attacks and social and mind engineering.
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Spiritual teachers have a saying: “Where Attention goes, energy flows.”
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And this also is most certainly true. Your mind and energy are powerful and precious and intended to be used wisely. So that’s why the Dark Siders who control The Indispensable Nation’s State Corporate Media work tirelessly to keep your energy depleted and your attention fully wasted on lots of nonsense. So we’re supposed to get all happy about a cease-fire? A cease-fire from WHAT? From violent foolish crap that never should have been initiated by Western and Chosenite Fools in the first place who started this? Not really much to get all warm and fuzzy about, is it? Do we just pull up another chair and wait for the next engineered and conjured crisis from the Dark Puppet Masters so we can give Them the Pavlovian response they are looking for?
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“… the situation has revealed many of our supposed allies as enemies. In reality, they were always enemies.”
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Why would anyone in Europe really ever give a rodent’s behind about America? The legacy populations across the Sea (and the new hordes flowing in) over there still think that America and Americans are just neanderthal savage upstarts that never will be the equals of Europeans. The ‘Allies’ only went along with things from Indispensable-Land as long as They felt They got some benefit out of it. They always resented the free-spirit and independence of true Americans and the wealth of the Nation. Why? Because at heart, Europeans today love socialist communism which means no freedoms or wealth for anything other than the Unholy State. Nothing would please them more than to see America fail and be erased from the map.
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Now that the truth is out in the open… it has joined lots of other truths that are being revealed today.
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But remember, do your civic and patriotic duty and allow yourself to be distracted and dis-spirited by the Dark Siders and The Indispensable Nation’s State Corporate Media. You don’t want to be ‘Un-American’ now, do you?
The most important thing regarding Iran is not being discussed. The Mullahs and IRGC want nuclear weapons and missiles that can deliver them for one reason: so they can prepare ground to take over the world when their spiritual leader appears.
They are the religious version of NAZI Germany. The parallels are obvious.
They are not a normal state that wants to prosper and get along with others. They are expansionist and want to dominate everyone, including their own citizens. This is why negotiating with them never gets anywhere. Their ideology requires them to dominate, not engage in reciprocal relationships.
The only option is unconditional surrender. Treaties won’t work.
Hmm. Interesting that you did not talk about Iran’s response to the US blockade. Just as Michael Yon predicted several years ago that the US would block the straight, (hehe) so did the Iranians. I watched several senior Iranian military figures site categorically that they expected the US to block the straight during this war.
I wonder what Iran’s military response to the US will be? My guess is that they will expand the war in a dramatic and unanticipated way. They have clearly planned for exactly this current outcome for a looong time.
Never heard of him, and no one else has either, I imagine. There’s no evidence whatsoever that the Iranians planned for a US blockade of the Hormuz and there’s nothing they can do about it even if they had. Iran has ALWAYS planned around the strategy of locking down the Homruz, never have they presented a strategy for countering a foreign blockade of the Homruz. But I do find it funny that Iran bots and jewspergs are coping so hard that they have to fantasize about magical tactics and weapons that the Iranaians have been keeping secret and for some reason haven’t used even when their military was getting pummeled for a month.
Speaking of the truth finally coming out, have you heard about the SPLC being indicted for fraud as well as manufacturing hate crimes and funding the very extremist groups they claim to be fighting against, like the Proud Boys?
I didn’t hear about the Proud Boys – There is evidence that they were paying off members to commit crimes? I did see that they were paying members of the KKK and similar groups, which is not surprising. We’ve been calling out the SPLC as a psy-op for DECADES. I just can’t believe they’ve finally been caught. Every member of that organization (including those who were members years ago) should be thrown in prison for treason against the American people.
My mistake, I meant Patriot Front.
Ah, yes, but those guys are so obvious that I don’t think anyone was fooled. Real conservative groups don’t wear masks and matching outfits.
For DECADES. I saw it from the inside when the FBI Bulletin Magazine and the SPLC “Intelligence Report” contained non stop demonization of conservative groups and always missed the leftist groups. Many in LE succumbed to the propaganda. Especially in the Federal corps. In my estimation, that is why there is so much animosity by Federal LE against the Oath Keepers, 3%ers and others who are obviously pro US and freedom.
Brandon,
Good article. I have long blamed the left for emotion logic. While this is an extremely accurate conclusion, the reality is we all get emotionally involved when it begins to affect our wallet. I term this aspect as bunker mentality. We cease spending on anything other than the day to day needs. I myself am truly guilty of it. It’s hard to be objective when it comes to food on the table and meeting your monthly bill quota.
That said, those who can treat the world as a fishbowl and keep themselves outside the fray and not be emotionally attached have the best opportunity of prediction and understanding. While once the red pill or blue pill was the only option within MAGA or the Progressives many new pills became available as the purple pill or black pill (insert color, mindset, or definition). The reality is being CAPTURED within these hemisphere’s clouds judgement. Emotional baggage gets heavier and reality is an obscured landscape.
While this is a truly long winded explanation and attempt at just saying great article Brandon, it also defines not only our reality but the problematic situation of truly grasping said reality. Great job Brandon. You found the kernels all of which are gems.