By Brandon Smith
Before I begin this analysis of the situation in the Middle East and its consequences, I want to warn people that this examination is going to be largely secular and nuanced; which means people on both sides of the divide are going to piss and moan about it. Frankly, I don’t care.
To be clear, I’m not interested in the “plight” of the Palestinians, the Islamic regime in Iran or the conspiracy theories of “groypers.” I find appeals of empathy and compassion for Islamic societies to be naive – They are perfectly indifferent and hostile to the west, they always have been. They have also formed political alliances with far-left organizations in the US and Europe with the intent to burn the west to the ground. I do not waste my time worrying about them.
In fairness, I also don’t care about the Israeli government and I have no vested interest in whether or not they survive. In the past, Israeli supported organizations have helped in the formation of militant leftist groups and anti-conservative sentiments in the US. The fact that leftist activists have turned on Israel in recent years is rather poetic.
I recognize many Christians would disagree with this position in the belief that Israel is the only western ally keeping watch over the Holy Land. I argue that it should be western Christians (not Israelis) in charge of the region, given it was ours (through the Holy Roman Empire) for centuries, until the Muslim hordes invaded.
I’m also aware that there are numerous disinformation agents online who are paid by both sides. Israel as well as Islamic governments run these digital operations constantly. They expend vast amounts of money to employ armies of social media shills. Their singular job is to disrupt sincere discussion and sway American opinion to support one side or the other.
This tells me a lot about how important the US population is to the geopolitical future of the world. Everyone wants us to pick their team or hate their opponent.
What I care about first and foremost is how geopolitical events and our involvement will affect America and American interests. What I have learned in recent years, though, is that it’s easy enough to predict events but not necessarily outcomes. There are people out there that think every international conflict or crisis is going to end in global doom.
None of them have so far. Of course, all it takes is the right crisis to trigger a Black Swan. This is where I think many of us in the alternative media build lighthouses, warding ships away from the rocky shores of any incident that might become a world-ending singularity.
It’s important to understand that dramatic geopolitical shifts have the potential to act as “linchpins”, impacting our lives through a chain of dominoes that is not immediately apparent until years later. Potential does not mean certainty. As I’ve been pointing out for many years now – collapse is a process, not an event.
In spring of 2024 in my article “Iran vs Israel: What Happens Next Now That Shots Have Been Fired?” I predicted the development of an unavoidable war footing between Iran and the US (with Israel as instigator or convenient rationale) and I argued that this would escalate in the spring of 2025. I was one year off.
In that article I predicted initial air strikes of primary targets. I predicted Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz (which has now happened). I predicted a ground invasion into Lebanon by Israel (which has not happened yet), followed by the eventual ground invasion by US and Israeli forces into Iran.
Immediate consequences could include a spike in oil and gas prices (over 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz). Then there’s elevated possibility of planned and autonomous terror attacks (the recent mass shooting in Austin, TX appears to be the first). There’s the danger of a potential military draft should the war carry on for more than a couple years or if it turns into an occupation dealing with a large insurgency.
Finally, there is the growing chance of increasing hostility with Russia and China leading to an eventual catalyst that causes world war. This is a worst-case scenario viewpoint of the conflict, and not necessarily the most likely outcome.
For example, in Venezuela, black pillers wailed and raged over Donald Trump’s black-bag operation that resulted in the capture of illegitimate dictator Nicolas Maduro. They claimed with certainty that this action would initiate Vietnam Part II. They were entirely wrong.
Millions of Venezuelans around the world rejoiced and the Venezuelan population has done nothing in the name of bringing Maduro back. Trump’s critics ignored the applause from Venezuelan nationals and argued that their opinions don’t matter.
Why? Because their support of Trump’s invasion is inconvenient to the narrative that he’s a “mindless warmonger” and that he is “betraying his voter base.” This is a childish response to complex geopolitical dynamics.
Many dictatorships deserve to die. The libertarian methodology of sitting around and doing nothing while bitching about the people who take action is growing stale. The American public is not inspired by passivity. This does not mean we should go to war with Iran, per se, but I think US patriots are done with ego-stroking debates on constitutional and ideological theory. They want to see results.
If moral justification is the issue, then there is a fair case to be made for the decapitation of the Islamic regime in Iran. The Iranian government engages in the same brutal theocratic oppression we have seen with the Taliban in Afghanistan, but on an industrial scale. If you are a woman, a political dissident or a religious minority in Iran, you have no rights and can be arrested or murdered for any reason at any given moment.
Just because Muslims happen to agree with conservatives that transgender activists are predatory lunatics does not mean we have anything else in common.
Most critics will argue that regime change in Iran is only meant to benefit Israel and not the Iranian people. It actually benefits MANY countries, not just Israel. I would also argue that Trump’s REAL goal is probably to further isolate China from its international oil sources, while Israel is a secondary concern (or a useful excuse).
Trump’s decapitation strategy against Venezuela, his policies on the Panama Canal and his Iran strikes conveniently cut China off from around 20% of its oil resources. This is significant and could change China’s military development efforts dramatically. That said, just because Trump was right on Venezuela does not mean he will be right on Iran.
The US is very good at taking out enemy leadership and blowing stuff up. We are completely inept when it comes to occupation and this is where we always lose. Occupation requires majority support of the foreign population. Without it, there is no point.
In Iran, Trump MIGHT have it. We have to wait and see what the Iranian population does in reaction to the decapitation strikes. If too large a percentage of the populace throws support behind the Islamists, then the limited strikes will have to evolve into a ground war, and a ground war without domestic alliances would turn into a quagmire.
Then there’s the question of the Strait of Hormuz. Clearing the strait and keeping it operational will be difficult. Iran can run interference on oil shipping for months merely by targeting tankers with thousand of drones. I don’t have to explain what one Shahed drone can do to a ship loaded with combustible oil.
If it was my operation, I would target the strait with long range artillery or ballistic missiles supported by drone spotters. All it takes is one large sunken ship to close the Hormuz for weeks. This is a problem IF Trump’s strikes on top officials do not inspire a popular revolution.
The Hormuz closure will mean higher gas prices (though, I suspect part of Trump’s strategy is to use Venezuelan oil exports to offset the Hormuz bottleneck). If Trump can’t keep prices relatively low, then the American public will be very unhappy. We already spent four years suffering under Biden’s inflation. We can’t absorb any more.
Russian and Chinese involvement in the region appears to be limited to weapon sales and logistics. Russia does have a Strategic Partnership Treaty with Iran, but it does not contain a mutual defense clause. I worry far more that elitists in Europe are doing everything in their power to start a world war with Russia by interfering in Ukraine.
Speaking of the OTHER conflict in the east, it’s interesting to me that, under the Biden Administration, Democrats avidly and rabidly demanded direct confrontation with Russia over Ukraine. Like Iran, it’s just another country that has little to do with us, yet they were happy to risk nuclear conflagration over that foreign entanglement. This is why I don’t take leftists seriously at all when it comes to their anti-war rhetoric.
As far as Israel is concerned, yeah, they make off like bandits in this situation. They know they do. I’m sure they are secretly proud of that fact. They would never be able to fight this war alone. But I’m not going to cry over the destruction of a Muslim theocracy just because Israel gains something from it.
The issue is America, and whether or not this war will escalate out of control and turn into a global crisis that harms us. I will admit that Trump has displayed a knack for executing limited military operations with far-reaching effects at limited cost. He has proven the blackpillers wrong on several occasions.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth asserts that there will be no quagmire. If this is possible to pull off, then it will be the Trump Administration’s greatest magic trick yet.
If it’s not possible, then the outcome will be chaos and civil breakdown in Iran followed by balkanization, tribal warfare and widespread insurgency far outside the boundaries of the country. Trying to clean up the mess would likely result in the same kind of failed occupation the US experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan.
It’s a gamble that risks a sharp division within the conservative base. It also risks the extremist left coming back into power. Any major disaster on Trump’s watch could serve the interests of globalists seeking to exploit a crisis to further demonize the concepts of nationalism and conservatism.
At that point, the only solution would have to be a total and unrelenting crusade, with or without the Trump Admin.
If we want to protect our children and the future in general, the leftist cult can never be allowed to take power again. Third world migrants cannot be allowed to stay in the US. And, globalists can’t be allowed to remain as social engineers influencing world events.
There are many people who oppose the elites who also see a substantial failure by Trump as an opportunity to “kick off the boogaloo.” They see chaos as a chance to finally put the greater underlying war against the globalists and multiculturalists to rest. I’m not sure I disagree. What I do know is that this would cost a considerable number of innocent lives, but maybe it can’t be avoided.
The success or failure of the Trump Presidency changes little in terms of our ultimate responsibility to ensure that the globalists face justice.
For now, I am erring on the side of an Iranian government collapse and a win for Trump after a couple months of limited strikes and covert ops. In the meantime I expect a wave of attempted terror attacks, even more NGO paid riots by leftists activists and probably an emergency effort by DHS to deport most Muslim immigrants from the country. The cynics say “nothing ever happens”, except when something happens. Keep your head on a swivel.
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34 Comments
I really appreciate your talent to express your opinions is such a clear fashion. Thank you.
You and I are of a like mind on this issue in every aspect you wrote about. I did not think in wise to attack Iran based on the condition of our armed forces, logistical issues, lack of a manufacturing base to quickly resupply and the Incessant lobbying from Israel. But then, when is it a good time?
Excelent!
I would add, don’t forget that the elites, american included, are very mystical people.
Even if we don’t believe, they do. Crazy stuff, like Baal, manifesting the apocalipse, end of times, chosen destiny, and so on.
And that impacts top decision making process.
They would kill us all, if their occult guru tells them to do this.
Iran has zero chance of winning a straight up fight between the US and or Israel. However Iran looks to be employing Ukrainian war tactics. They are using terror tactics in the Gulf states where the big money likes to go.
They are creating havoc in the Straits of Hormuz. As Gilbert Doctorow said in an interview this morning on Judge Nap’s YT podcast that Iran can use guerrilla warfare by targeting ships trying to pass thru. They are looking to cripple the world’s economy as payback.
Brandon, I appreciate you so vividly pointing out your position on all of the various issues related to this war. That really helps perspective when it comes time to comment by reducing positions of misunderstanding.
I take a Biblical and prophetic viewpoint on this war and look to see if it matches biblical patterns and events such as Matthew 24 that says there will be wars and rumors of revolutions and great distress of nations. Then I get more specific with the puzzle and try to see if events and nations are lining up as in Ezekiel 38 and 39 prophesies. We know that Russia will come against Israel with 5 other nations in the Ezekiel 38 and 39 battle of Gog and Magog. Turkey, Iran, Libya, Germany, Sudan and of course Russia.
Well, none of this could happen until 1948 because Israel had not yet regathered as a nation as prophesied in Zechariah. But we also see another biblical prophecy coming true from Zechariah. “Behold, I will make Jerusalem a cup of trembling unto all the people round about, when they shall be in the siege both against Judah and against Jerusalem. And in that day will I make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all people: all that burden themselves with it shall be cut in pieces, though all the people of the earth be gathered together against it.”
Zechariah 12:2-3 KJV
As of the last 3 or for years we have all begun to see this phenomenon coming where the whole world has an unexplainable and irrational hatred for Israel and even right here in America it is exponential.
I’m not sure where President Trump is going with all of this, but sometimes it’s good just to shake the Bushes a little bit and see what comes running out. Unfortunately we mostly just see what mainstream media tells us about the war and international politics. So we probably aren’t seeing all of the critters that came running out.
As far as America is concerned, well, this is where I live and I’m not sure that Russia will feel comfortable attacking Israel in the battle of Gog and Magog as long as the United States is still around to defend Israel. Then again, maybe we have all been deceived and the real goal of the United States is to gain a foothold on Israeli soil by acting like we are there to defend Israel. The Bible does say that at the final battle of Armageddon, all nations will come against Israel. I’m still putting the pieces together and regardless of what anyone thinks about the Jews, America almost immediately gets kicked really hard in the backside each and every time it attempts to divide the land of Israel with some bogus treaty. God takes that personally.
Iran: The Decisive Battle of ‘Armageddon’.!
US Troops Told ‘Iran’ War Is ‘Armageddon’ – Return of Jesus.!
Operation ‘Epstein’ Fury For ‘Greater Israel’.!
(‘Finishing Off, Iran’) Gen W. Clark (+ Gaza Genocide)
Divine Plan (Great Reset) – Bringing About The End Of The
World – Nuke Everybody – To Cover Up Their ‘Epstein’ Crimes.!
NATO Is At The Front Door Of Russia Thru Ukraine – POKING THE ‘BEAR’.!
‘Three Ribs In Its Mouth’
1. European Union
2. UK Commonwealth
3. North American Union
“That Many Nations Would Disappear From the Face of the
Earth – That Russia Would Be the Instrument of Chastisement
From Heaven For the Whole World.” Sister Lucia of Fatima 1957
Some people haven’t studied Bible prophecy very much, so every time there is a skirmish in the Middle East, they assume that it is the Final battle of Armageddon. Some theologians have referred to the series of wars in the Middle East as the campaign of Armageddon or the battle for Jerusalem, and in that sense, OK, over a period of years and at least 2 major battles, I suppose that would be accurate. But the Bible details these 2 major battles, first, the Battle of Gog and Magog where Russia attacks Israel along with 5 other nations. And then the official Battle of Armageddon where all the armies of the remaining nations come against Jerusalem in the final battle of Armageddon. The Bible describes both battles in great detail, so we don’t have to wonder. We can recognize each according to its own characteristics. That is, what nations are involved, who they are allied with and what role they play.
But that does not preclude the possibility of Russia and China making America non-existent anymore with nuclear weapons. Some theologians say that America is not even mentioned in end times prophecy, while others declare that America is Babylon the Great that sits on many waters and rules over the Kings of the earth… ie United Nations. Either way, America acquired the Babylon in the Middle East when it took Saddam Hussein. However it happens, the Bible says “such great riches are destroyed in one hour and the Kings of the earth and the captains of the ships made wealthy by trading with her, wept and wailed at the smoke of her burning because they could trade with her and be made rich by her no longer.”
You ought to research what God thinks of the Catholic Church and its members…it is not doing good in the prophecies of Revelation…
My immediate reaction about Iran is the part after the smoke clears. Just like in the past the US will heavily fund the rebuilding. From a financial perspective, is this the “financial fix” to the problems you have pointed out over the years? On one hand is collapse, but at this point isn’t the world a “too big to fail” operation?
“… people on both sides of the divide are going to piss and moan about it. Frankly, I don’t care.”
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If a person today doesn’t have a lot of people mad at them then that person is clearly doing something wrong. Why? Because there are millions (billions?) of people today who don’t have clue about what’s really going on and who are just parroting ideas that are just someone else’s horse crap. When someone steps up and voices an opinion that Groupthink doesn’t like… this should bring a swift reaction. Said another way… if no one is pushing back against one’s opinion then that person is either lost inside an empty echo chamber or they have an opinion that at heart is virtually worthless. No matter what a person believes today there will be countless people who don’t want to hear it.
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“… I also don’t care about the Israeli government and I have no vested interest in whether or not they survive.”
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Israeli government certainly does not give a chosen crap about whether America’s government survives. Or the American people who are in the view of the Talmud worthless animals. Citations are available.
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“What I care about first and foremost is how geopolitical events and our involvement will affect America and American interests… whether or not this war will escalate out of control and turn into a global crisis that harms us.”
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This you at odds with two governments right off the bat – the Government of Chosenland and that of United States Incorporated who do not share such concern.
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Last time around America voted for a man they believed was America’s last hope if not some kind of savior. But what happens now when that Last Hope has turned out to be no hope at all?
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It’s best to lose hope in those persons and things which are false hopes. Countefeit. That way we find our way back to the only place where hope can really be found – in ourselves. In ourselves – that is – who still have a clue and quit looking for political saviors…
And let’s not forget that Venezuela was a major trafficker of fentanyl into the country and have been doing so on China’s behalf to weaken us.
Brandon,
Excellent article and analysis! Do you see Trump’s pledge to provide insurance and even naval escort to the oil shipments as a viable effort or more an attempt to placate the markets in the short-term? Can the US Navy actually protect ships through the strait or does this make them more sitting ducks for drones and shoulder-fired rockets? There are also analysts who believe that a spike in oil could unwind the Japanese reverse carry trade. Do you agree?
Thanks
It’s hard to say. There is no way to maneuver in the strait; defending ships there is not a task I would want to be forced to figure out. They would have to ensure there’s no mines, no drones (in the air or under the water), no missiles and no artillery within striking range to actually ensure ships are safe. Artillery alone would be almost impossible to intercept, and all it takes is one cargo ship to go down and the strait is unusable until it’s cleared. As far as Japan is concerned, I think oil would have to climb dramatically to cause a problem. Venezuelan oil should be enough to offset the global shortages IF Trump’s team planned correctly.
Thanks, Brandon! Keep up the great work!
I share the author’s indifference to the respective parties involved, Israel and Iran. I concur that Islam is not compatible with Western civilization, but I am strongly opposed to this totally unmerited war with Iran. The question is qui bono?
Last I checked, we have a precarious fiscal situation and historically, wars bankrupt nations, not to mention the loss of life. Having served during wartime, I suggest you go to a VA hospital and see the broken bodies and minds. I recall a guy with half his face blown off. Not pleasant.
As to grand strategies involving China, who in fact is our main global adversary, short of the physical occupation of Iran, the temporary loss of oil to them, isn’t a long term problem. China wisely continues to build their industrial base, something we should be doing.
So who benefits? Israel and at our expense, as usual, along with the usual war profiteers and I worked in the MIC for a decade, so I have some idea what their about. Think high profit margins. Lastly when people cite the Bible, I don’t recall Jesus telling Peter to cut off the soldier’s other ear.
It depends on how long the war goes on for. If it ends with government decapitation and revolution, then it won’t last very long. Iran will go the way of Venezuela. But, if it carries on for many months (or years) then the problem will be largely the strain on energy markets which can affect many other sectors. As far as China is concerned, their economy is in dire crisis. They have been trying to hide it, but their infrastructure programs are collapsing and their youth unemployment is massive. They have maybe five years left before they completely implode. Israel is a top beneficiary, but not the only one. Most of the Middle East wants the regime gone, for political and economic reasons.
Brandon, did you consider factors possibly contributing to a long war: 1. Iranian mountainous terrain. 2. Size of the country. 3 Population 90+ mln. 4. Their rally around the flag, precipitated by foreign attack. 5. Significant portion of the population beig braiwashed. 6. Long time preparation by the Iranian regime for this war? Does it look like a walk in the part for the US?
The only thing that determines the length of the war will be the Trump Administration’s objectives. If the goal is to destroy the majority of Iran’s military infrastructure, then the US can accomplish that objective in maybe eight weeks and there’s nothing that Iran can do about it. If the goal is occupation, then yes, that could take forever. Which is why I said that occupation depends largely on the local population and whether or not they turn on the regime. If they don’t, then the US military will be wasting their time. It will be a guerrilla war for years. They should simply vaporize the entire Iranian military apparatus and then walk away.
Mr. Smith,
The horror!
Seriously wouldn’t want to witness millions of my unsavory “cousins” from the mainland flooding your borders should those damn chi-coms lose their grip on power.
(Knowing what they’re like – basically godless and mercenary owing to decades of misrule – that would be truly a worst-case scenario.)
The fledgling republic hardly had any problems solved via democracy early last century: leading to warlord rule and subsequent chaos (with eventual cruel communism introduced by globalist banksters in post-war period).
Not a fan of these sh*tbrics, but would state failure benefit any one of us long-term?
Recall perusing mainstream articles on Russian crime syndicates infiltrating America two and a half decades ago and they weren’t rosy pictures either.
We won’t allow them to flood the borders. You’re thinking of the Biden era and times have changed. We’re no longer going to tolerate mass immigration. As far as destabilization, I’m not sure how it matters but to be clear I never said I support it. I just said Trump’s most likely going to be successful in removing the Iranian regime from power. Funny how some people STILL interpret that as an endorsement. The feelings people have tied up in this war are bizarre. Most of them have no connections to the place at all.
Im not a fan of another middleast conflict, but saying its unmerited is also wrong. The mullahs have been at war with us since ’79. Killed hundreds of Marines and sailors in ’83. Not to mention the proxy’s they fund to fight us since. Regardless o how iit started back then with other administrations meddling, it needs to stop. I dont beluve Trump started this, he’s trying to end it. I think now is the time, they have a massive popular uprising despite protesters being shot by the bushel. I think it’s now or never. If anyone can pull this off without another quagmire, its Trump. I’m praying
You racist fascist.
Oh nooooo! Those words mean so much these days and it hurts! Please stop, angry gay communist!
Thanks for the badges of honor.
I did ‘Nazi’ why someone posted this, did ‘Jew’ see why? My bet is the tranny that posted this still has the factory shifter inatalled. Been awhile since I’ve seen a troll this lazy on your site Brandon, what gives?
They still show up every once in a while. I think they’re funny.
TFW: Your entire vocabulary consists entirely of nothing other than commie and commie dogwhistles.
I’ve seen many within alternative media saying they think there’s a connection between the release of the Epstein files and the timing of the war with Iran. What do you think?
No, not really. There have been multiple geopolitical events in the past two years building up to this moment. I don’t think they revolved around the Epstein files. But there are certainly people that seem to think EVERYTHING is about the Epstein files.
I swear Brandon- the blackpilling libertarians are increasingly annoying the hell out of me these days. They are almost as retarded as the leftists – but I suppose their hearts are in the right place. They are almost as useless as they mope, bitch, and cry about every slightest imperfection as they sit still in their delusional perfect utopia that will never come while the globalists continue to wreck havoc.
You even have some idiot “conservatives” calling for republican defeat before the midterms even happens as they seem to all suffer from amnesia about the woke leftists regime we narrowly escaped under Biden.
I personally think the globalists don’t mind the blackpillers like Massie and the twitter influencer noise as it encourages the conservatives to lose hope and stay inactive – which is what they count on. I believe they know they are screwed if conservatives actually act. Those billion dollar nuclear bunkers are most likely to escape the angry public trying to lynch them in public not actual nukes.
Thanks for sticking to the facts Brandon- I go straight to your articles instead of getting rage baited by the idiot influencers on twitter these days. Keep up the great work.
Thanks, I appreciate that. I still have an affinity for elements of libertarianism. But the longer I fight this fight, the more I’m realizing most of them will do nothing but debate, or wait until the danger is right on their doorstep before they act, and by then it will be too late. There’s ALWAYS an excuse to not organize, to not use force, to not rock the boat. “Pure” libertarianism is only functional in a vacuum. In the end, being pure in our non-aggression is meaningless unless we also win. The political left and the globalists understand this well. They exploit passive libertarian and centrist principles with glee.
Point of aim, hit point. An excellent article. Have a nice weekend!
“This is significant and could change China’s military development efforts dramatically.”
Yes, and do you think that China is going to just watch while they lose a significant portion of their oil imports?
There’s nothing they can do about it. China has no ability whatsoever to project military power beyond their borders and maybe Taiwan, and even Taiwan would cause them grief if allies step in. They could launch their meager nuke arsenal, but they would be obliterated, so unless they are suicidal that’s unlikely to happen. Welcome to reality.
This is a good piece –
..”The success or failure of the Trump Presidency changes little in terms of our ultimate responsibility to ensure that the globalists face justice.”
This…right above