By Brandon Smith
There are two primary obstacles to finding the truth in any given situation: Cognitive dissonance and propaganda. One always feeds into the other. Effective propaganda works because it caters to the biases or fears of its target audience. Cognitive dissonance is the open door through which propaganda enters the mind and controls it.
When it comes to Donald Trump and his administration, there is a LOT of propaganda and cognitive dissonance, and the vast majority of it is weaponized against him rather than for him. If you are unbiased, this is blatantly obvious. If you are hoping for his administration to fail, then you won’t see it at all; you’ll simply find a reason to see the worst.
For those reading this in the expectation that I am going to fuel their hobby of Trump hate, sorry to disappoint. I only care about facts and evidence, I don’t care about the concerns of foreign or domestic movements seeking to engineer public opinion, and there’s a lot of them.
Iran Was Only One Of Many Opponents
There is a vast network of disinformation operatives across the political landscape, mainstream media and social media. All of these people and the groups they work for have been pumping the information space with endless lies, specifically about the war in Iran and the peace negotiations.
Despite the disinformation, the outcome has been a massive win for Trump on almost every level. This position is going to anger some folks – I really don’t care. Some people just don’t comprehend the bigger picture of this event. Others are outright denying the victory because they NEED Trump to lose, or they need the public to interpret the peace deal as a loss.
It’s important to understand that Iran is not the only adversary in the war. It’s not even the most dangerous adversary. There are a number of subversive groups in the US vying to control the narrative. I separate these naysayers into four categories:
The Neo-Con Warmongers: People like John Bolton, Lindsey Graham or Mike Pence (the Atlantic Council crowd) who have long wanted all out annihilation of Iran and they don’t care how many American lives are put at risk to achieve that goal. They’re angry about the peace deal because it sabotages their agenda for total regime change and US occupation of the region.
The Israeli Lobby: Like the Neo-Cons, the Israeli lobby wants a ground invasion and total regime change. Long have they held up the threat of a nuclear Iran as a rationale for US ground deployment. Yes, they have a right to defend themselves. No, it is not America’s job to do their fighting for them. If we do, it must be because our interests are being met in the process.
The Political Left: The left wants a quagmire in Iran because they think it would jump-start their own midterm election campaigns. They are also trying to form an alliance with Islamic interests as a way to tear down western civilization, The leftists see any win for Trump, any positive news, as a threat to their return to power.
The Black Pillers: One thing I’ve noticed about the cognitive dissonance surrounding the Iran deal is that some people, including commentators I have a lot of respect for, have been joining the propaganda train without looking at the bigger picture. Iranian state media has consistently posted misleading claims during negotiations, yet, there are liberty movement personalities who jump on every news release from Iran as if it is golden.
For the black pillers, I think this is about not wanting to be proven wrong. They said the conflict was going to turn into WWIII. They said the Hormuz closure was going to crash the global economy. They said Trump was going to deploy tens-of-thousands of ground troops and that US naval ships would be destroyed by hypersonic missiles. They were all wrong. None of this happened.
I also warned of these outcomes for many years – Outlining the many pitfalls of a long term war. However, as soon as I realized what Trump was actually doing and that a ground invasion was not part of the plan, I had to change my perspective.
How Trump Won
In my article “Global Energy Crisis Or Iranian Surrender In Five Weeks?”, published in March, I explained how Trump’s goal of forcing the Iranian regime to the negotiating table could be achieved WITHOUT a ground invasion (potentially saving thousands of lives). This was my “blockade of the blockade” strategy designed to strangle Iran’s oil industry. Two weeks later, the Trump Admin implemented this exact strategy.
Keep in mind, at the time everyone was saying that Iran was going to fight to the last man and that they had no reason to negotiate. It took longer than five weeks after the blockade to pressure Iran into a deal; it took nine weeks instead. I believe the blockade was integral to this outcome.
The critics (and special interest groups) now argue that the deal is a form of US “capitulation”. Not long ago they were saying a deal was impossible. But every group has different and often ridiculous notions of what victory is supposed to look like. Let’s examine the actual end result Trump has accomplished…
Why The Peace Deal Is An Undeniable Victory For The Trump Admin
At least two levels of Iran leadership destroyed. Iran’s missile and drone attacks declined significantly towards the middle of the war, suggesting their ability to launch has been diminished. Iranian leadership was forced into negotiations. The Strait of Hormuz is wide open without tolls. Iran’s 60% enriched nuclear materials are buried under a mountain range and the weapons program is officially ended. IAEA and US inspectors will supervise the dilution of those materials once they are finally dug up, and will likely remove the Uranium from the country under US watch.
As a side effect, the OPEC oil cartel is ending. The UAE has announced it’s exit, which means other members will exit in order to compete with the UAE’s increased oil production. This means a lot more oil on the market and much lower prices in the long run.
But what did Iran supposedly get in return? This is where the propagandists step in and lie about the details of the deal, often by omission.
Iran Gets Nothing That Can’t Be Easily Taken Away Again
Lets address the common claim that Iran is getting a $300 billion payout from the US. This is false and a deliberate misrepresentation of the facts. First, this potential investment fund does not exist yet, it is simply an idea on paper. Second, not a single penny of US taxpayer dollars will go to Iran as a part of this fund if it is ever established.
The fund is presented as a possible carrot for the Iranians, made up of private foreign investments largely from neighboring countries. It would be implemented IF the Iranians behave and broadly change their governmental policies, likely over the course of years.
All the leverage is in the hands of the Trump Admin to allow this fund to be created or taken away at any given moment. The claim that this is “reparations” from the US is a lie. The claim that Iran is being paid in exchange for a deal is a lie.
What about the unfreezing of Iranian assets? Is that capitulation for the US? No, it’s not. These assets already belonged to Iran before the war. If the war ends, of course they’re going to get those assets back eventually. Beyond that, the US only holds around $2 billion of the total funds, the rest is scattered across a dozen other countries.
What about tolls on the Hormuz?
There are endless claims that this is going to happen, but it’s not. Nowhere in the peace deal is there a provision for Iran to institute tolls on the Hormuz. It is true that the current MOU is a foundation for more detailed negotiations over the next 60 days, but again, NO ONE in the Trump Admin has agreed to a toll system, and they won’t. Because doing so would set a precedent for international waterways around the globe and that can’t be allowed by any government.
It should be noted that Iran didn’t even have leverage over the Hormuz during the conflict. US naval operations allowed over 200 oil tankers through the strait without Iran being able to stop them. The insurance companies are a greater obstacle to ships traversing the strait than Iran is.
I believe that the US blockade of the Hormuz did, in fact, lead to serious damage to a number of Iran’s oil wells. I think we will be hearing more about this damage in the coming months. Meaning, Iran’s ability to maintain their economy has just been significantly reduced. I believe the peace deal focuses so much on possible funds exactly because Iranian oil capacity has just been cut. In order to get them to commit, there has to be some light at the end of the tunnel. This is negotiations 101.
What about high oil and gas prices? Isn’t this a detriment for Republicans in the midterms? To be clear, there is no indication of an actual supply shortage during the blockade of the Hormuz. Oil prices are plummeting exactly because the majority of the market shock was caused by speculation, not shortages (once again, the skeptics were wrong). This will result in large cuts at the gas pump over the course of the next six weeks, unless a crisis occurs.
And how about the Uranium, the main reason the war was launched in the first place? Yes, the Iranians were building everything they needed to produce nuclear weapons. And yes, the US now essentially controls those resources.
For years we heard the argument that Iran was close to a nuke, but most of us didn’t believe it because of past government disinformation on Iraqi WMDs. This situation is different. Iran has openly admitted to having nearly 1000 pounds of 60% enriched Uranium, and they admit that it can be further enriched to weapons grade (90%) in a matter of weeks. The war revealed that Iran’s ballistic missiles have far more range that initially predicted, and they have the ability to strike all of Europe including the UK.
The regime asserts that they did not intend to use these components to make an actual bomb, but if this is true, why didn’t they just give up the enriched Uranium in the very beginning? It’s only useful for one thing. Why risk all-out war over it, unless they fully intended to make nukes? Anyone with a brain can see what they were up to.
One might argue that Iran should be allowed to have nukes and that the war was unjust. I disagree.
The authoritarian Islamic regime should not be allowed to have such weapons. Trump was right about this, and yes, the war as it stands was worth it. A culture that believes they will be rewarded in heaven in exchange for righteous religious suicide should never have access to weapons that can destroy entire cities in the blink of an eye. No one is ever going to convince me otherwise.
Some Lessons From The War
If Iran was successful in anything, it was the exploitation of western social media in order to spread disinformation. I suspect they probably had a lot of help with this, perhaps from Russia or China. Meanwhile, they locked their population out of the internet, making it impossible for local dissidents to post contrary information.
The Trump Admin continues to fall behind the curve when it comes to countering foreign propaganda and left-wing propaganda. That said, they’ve improved a lot over the past two months.
Trump’s political base support has not changed despite the war. People who claimed he was going to lose conservatives were utterly wrong. But, if he had initiated a ground war, I think this would not be the case.
Finally, weapons provided to Iran by China and Russia proved to be largely useless against US forces in the region. Hundreds of attempts to target US naval forces failed. One thing that did seem to help Iran was satellite intel from Russia. This did make their attacks on ground targets more effective, but not to the point that they presented a serious threat.
Maybe you don’t agree with the initiation of the war. Maybe you don’t like the end result. But, the fact of the matter is, Trump is getting everything he wanted out of the deal. Iran is getting nothing unless they comply. And, the special interests looking for a ground invasion and large scale conflagration get nothing. In my view, this is a resounding success.
To be sure, the deal could break down and there are plenty of people trying to make it break down. It doesn’t matter. Trump can easily reinstate previous measures, the same measures that forced Iran to the table in the first place. He’s at his leisure. Lets be thankful that the blockade worked and that a ground invasion never entered into the discussion. Let’s admit that this is a win, and move on.
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26 Comments
This is a refreshing outlook that is contrary to all the propaganda claiming Trump is an epic failure – comparing him to Obama – and how this is going to burden the US taxpayers. I have not dug deep into this, but even at my causal level of understanding, it is clear there is much more to the story.
One thought that ties into the Trump victory and the recent Moscow oil refinery bombing; the US is slowly gaining control of the worlds oil. We can add up all the events from Venezuela, to blocking Iranian oil, to the major hits on refineries in Russia and I want to say other refineries were hit in recent memory. Seems the primary target in these recent conflicts is oil refineries – right when the US has become a net oil exporter and gained control of Venezuela. And the US will likely rebuild and oversee, if not outright control, Iran’s oil industry?
Nice insight. Controlling the worlds oil supply has always seemingly been a centerpiece of global conflict. Makes you wonder what will happen when the oil runs out.
Thanks. I’m not fully on board about the oil running out. Seems we have been fed the lie since the beginning? Oil may very well be a fission product of the earth’s core. It’s not dead dinosaurs as we were told. Now I don’t have any proof, but for how long have we been hearing that the oil will run out? The allure of scarcity keeps prices elevated.
The big push to electrify everything seems to be only targeted at the general public of developed countries. As I see it, part of the big picture (going way back) is reallocating the cheaper and energy dense hydrocarbon fuel for those mega corporations who make everything the world uses. All the “green energy” talk is just training the population to accept the falsehoods.
Very nice of all those big lizards to die in the same place, so many millions of years ago.
Good lizards, good lizards.
How many lizards were there ?
Ditto .
Another rockstar article by Brandon. I wanted to add to the list of 4 propaganda parties that there is to me a glaringly obvious 5th party of jihad sympathizers/foreign agents posing as jihad sympathizers. I guess you could lump this in with the political left but if these are actual zealots they would murder the leftists on day one of a power grab. So to me they are seperate.
So with the names you listed, ie Lindsey Graham, etc…. are you saying that President Trump is keeping his friends close, or his enemies closer? As of a couple of days ago, President Trump was saying that our strategic oil reserves would be dried up in 2-4 weeks. I think much is going to change soon if that is the case.
The strategic reserves were already low before the war from Democrats blocking a refill at low prices. The SPR is lower now because the supply was being sold to Asian countries most affected by the Hormuz shutdown. The US is capable of providing its own supply. As far as Lindsey Graham goes, there’s nothing that Trump can do to get rid of him, and he keeps Graham largely at a distance from the Administration. I wouldn’t say they are close by any means. But, in government, you often have to work with people who are not on your side, unfortunately.
Fair enough.
Where can we go to have TRUE news on worldly affairs? One place that list all of them instead of the communist lying MSM? We are too fragmented and divided and all over as individual websites.
People don’t take us seriously because we are not united or made to look like it.
Here’s how you position yourself and pose for the next Nobel Peace Prize as well as making people around the World (and the remaining gullible MAGA apologists) believe that You are the great deal-maker that you have always claimed to be:
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1. Attack a Nation that is no threat to America (but on behalf of that other Nation that actually runs America).
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2. Then ‘Make a Deal’ to end the attack that you started when you didn’t have to in the first place.
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3. Then prance around and smirk and crow that, “See! There it is! I AM the Great Deal-Maker! Ha!”
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So, Trump is hero because he ends a war that He had to sign off on to start and then one day calls off the dogs? And this is a great deal? From the Greatest Deal Maker?
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Or is this a lot of hype over events that never should have happened in the first place but did a lot of damage and death and acts to further the self-Chosen Nation’s lust for Greater Chosenland?
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This ‘Agreement’ with Iran such as it is does little to rehabilitate Trump’s tarnished image with the many honest MAGA followers who sincerely wanted to believe in him and who supported him until they could do that no longer when he betrayed his ‘No Wars’ pledge. It will thrill the remaining few MAGA follows who will never abandon Trump no matter what he does. There is nothing he could do that would make them change their minds and leave his remaining residue of support.
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Little of actual substance has changed in geopolitics. Chosenland still hates everyone around Them who does not support Much Greater Chosenland. Iran still has the fearsome enemies it had before. All sides are fully dug-in to their geopolitical positions as nothing will ever change that. So this War just used up a bunch of America’s munitions which the Military Complex is overjoyed to now replace at greatly marked-up prices for the economically-stressed American taxpayers. In fact, it is the Military Complex that is the big winner here which is always the outcome in these sorts of misadventures.
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One might say this is Much Ado about Nothing. But war and death is never nothing. It is tragic and pathetic.
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But then, how else to grab the lead for that next Big Beautiful Nobel Prize?
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Look, the bottom line is that it’s great that for a while the destruction will end. And some people see good vibes in this. And perhaps a few good things might come out of this.
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But in the end… nothing has changed. Except that the cemeteries and the contractors who will get the rebuilding just got a whole lot more business.
Sorry, but you missed the bigger problem, unless you think another inbred Muslim fundamentalist country should be allowed to have nukes, which Iran was weeks away from developing. War was easily avoidable, all the Iranians had to do was give up their 60% enriched Uranium – They refused. Now, they are forced to give it up, and their oil industry is damaged and half of their military destroyed. Blaming Trump is a lazy way to avoid the conundrum of Islamic fanaticism and nuclear weapons. Non-interventionism is a pipe dream. There are going to be times when stepping in and applying pressure is, in fact, necessary.
“ all the Iranians had to do was give up their 60% enriched Uranium”
How do you know they had this?
They openly admit that they have it. Did you read the article and links attached? It boggles my mind that people still don’t know this.
Brandon Smith: “… unless you think another inbred Muslim fundamentalist country should be allowed to have nukes…”.
I’m all for taking away nukes from Muslim fundamentalist countries. Who wouldn’t be? But I’m also for taking away nukes from self-Chosen countries with oversized delusions of World grandeur.
One nation that possesses such weaponry that openly hates others nations right next to it just might create a little anxiety in those neighboring nations. Take ALL the damned things out of there and one might get a more stable situation.
But Chosenland will never agree to giving up anything like that and so the stalemate goes on and on because that They will never surrender Their overwhelming weapons.
Well, as noted in the article, I don’t think we should be fighting Chosenland’s battles for them exactly because they tend to cause problems. But, I would point out that they are very angry with Trump right now exactly because he didn’t give them what they wanted in the war. This suggests to me that Chosenland does not have the kind of global influence that many people assume.
People seem to be forgetting that what Trump said was no more “forever wars”. Saying no Wars at all would be an impossible promise based upon the actions of other countries. By saying no more forever Wars he means that if military force has to be used it will be used quickly decisively and then the US will leave the area or cease the hostilities as necessary. That seems to be what was done here. I would have preferred that if we threw down against Iran that we went all the way and removed the regime but there may be reasons that we didn’t. However I don’t believe that we can blame Trump for having to use military force. And that is not the same as the forever Wars the previous administrations had gotten us into.
It will take another year or so to feel the whole effects of this whole endeavor.
The flow of not just oil but all the derivatives like fertilizers, sulfuric acid, plastic components and others that have either not been shipped in a just-in-time world or not made because the refining facility was damaged or destroyed is a mid-term wave that will disrupt a lot of manufacturing from extraction to store shelves.
If the intention was to pull the horns in, get out of the Middle East and away from Israeli entanglements while knocking globalism down a few pegs, this was a success. The Tri-Powers should be alright with the rest of the world begging for scraps, if there is any surplus to give.
Now we wait for the final tally in unfertilized crops, shifting blends of materials if the equipment can be adjusted, and watching if Cushing runs dry before ships arrive.
Brandon, if the USA has been selling large amounts of oil to Asia, won’t a stall in the memo and a closing of the Strait again create major energy, lubricant, fertilizer shortage world wide, not to mention the States? Are stories about hitting bottom fake news? What is your analysis?
If the strait remains a problem for a long period of time, Asia faces shortages, yes. Though, the strait wasn’t really “closed” over the past two months. The US moved over 200 tankers through the Hormuz right under Iran’s nose and they couldn’t do anything about it.
So when do you think we can start to see the Bangin’ Bill&Killary Clinton, Barry Sotero and Michael Robinson face justice over Uranium One? That isof course after they dig up that uranium ore and trace those isotopes back to US stockpiles?
Yes indeed, so before the war, we had an open strait, an Iran willing to downblend their higher enriched U to power plant level if given sanctions relief, an Iran already committing to no nukes (and verified so by our spy agencies, as many times testified to), and Arab gulf nations willing to pay exorbitant $$$ for an American protection racket.
After the war (whenever Iz allows that to happen, since now we have hitched our wagons to them), we may eventually have an open strait, Iran is still willing to commit to no nukes and down blending if given sanctions relief, Iranian people are reminded of why they dislike American meddling, much of our infrastructure in the area including highly expensive radar etc. is destroyed and needs to be rebuilt, and Arab nations may be starting to get a clue, like the Europeans, that relying on American defense may not be a great idea.
So a lot of destruction and killing for no gain, unless you’re in the war business. As W Bush said to his FEMA guy after Katrina, one could tell the Prez today “heck of a job.”
False. Iran wasn’t willing to “downblend’ their Uranium, in fact they absolutely refused and bragged openly about being close to weapons grade enrichment. They were also funding and training the majority of Islamic terror groups in the region, which is now over. No vital US infrastructure was destroyed, that is IRGC disinformation. They did, however, bomb a bunch of empty US bases from the Iraq war. How much do you get paid to lie online?
Iran continues to capitulate, agreeing to IAEA inspections. This is the first step in removing highly enriched materials from the country. Homruz is wide open despite claims it was closed again. Trump says US will take over permanent management of the strait if Iranians don’t behave. They also pretended to walk out of the negotiations with Vance, but were forced to continue. Muslims talk big, but that is all they do.
Thanks for the update. Hopefully, this will be handled correctly. It seems much is at stake!
The mainstream media totally hides the cause of this war. Mahdism, the Shia Islamic belief that it is their duty to drop nuclear weapons on the Great Satan the United States, and the Little Satan Israel in order to bring back to earth the 12th Imam – The Mahdi. It sounds insane and it is but the Ayatollahs that control that country are willing to die to bring the Mahdi who went into divine hiding in the year 878 AD. Millions of Shia Muslims are also waiting for the 12th Imam to come back and establish the Global Caliphate where no non-Muslims exist. They will never stop trying to build nuclear weapons which is why force had to be used to stop them. And for people who don’t want the US to support Israel, how will you feel when the Muslims are building a giant mosque over the place where Jesus Christ was crucified and resurrected? Don’t care? You won’t mind living as a slave under Sharia Law?